The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings . The results are sorted by start time. The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O. The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under. Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

Utah St (+23.5) 20 BYU (U 61.5) 40 0.8754 0.5725 0.5638 Tulane (O 54.5) 28 Houston (-2.5) 33 0.6042 0.5492 0.6060 UTSA (U 63.5) 33 Middle Tenn St (+5.5) 30 0.5754 0.5450 0.5330 San Diego St (O 39.5) 17 Boise St (-3.5) 21 0.6000 0.5149 0.5113 Washington (U 64.5) 29 UCLA (+2.5) 31 0.5362 0.5906 0.6022 New Mexico (+15.5) 17 UNLV (O 44.5) 30 0.7810 0.5584 0.5831 Illinois (U 43.5) 17 Wisconsin (-7.5) 26 0.7004 0.5232 0.5691 Louisville (U 51.5) 33 Boston College (+15.5) 21 0.7541 0.5883 0.5021 Georgia St (+9.5) 23 Army (U 57.5) 31 0.6698 0.5423 0.5713 Purdue (U 53.5) 20 Minnesota (-10.5) 31 0.7385 0.5096 0.5588 Navy (O 37.5) 13 Air Force (-15) 31 0.8609 0.5695 0.6678 Temple (O 53.5) 16 Memphis (-20.5) 40 0.9162 0.5726 0.5193 Kentucky (O 54.5) 24 Mississippi (-6.5) 31 0.6610 0.5168 0.5032 Texas Tech (U 57.5) 24 Kansas St (-7.5) 33 0.6907 0.5265 0.5683 Oklahoma (-6.5) 38 TCU (U 67.5) 30 0.6660 0.5309 0.5291 Michigan (U 42.5) 24 Iowa (+10.5) 17 0.6739 0.5786 0.5169 Texas St (+21.5) 20 James Madison (O 53.5) 38 0.8446 0.5728 0.5543 N Illinois (-3.5) 34 Ball St (O 60.5) 30 0.5919 0.5149 0.5172 Massachusetts (O 56.5) 19 E Michigan (-20.5) 45 0.9253 0.6202 0.6496 Oregon St (O 56.5) 21 Utah (-10.5) 34 0.7618 0.5460 0.5008 Northwestern (U 52.5) 9 Penn St (-25.5) 35 0.9437 0.5061 0.6738 Wake Forest (+6.5) 33 Florida St (O 66) 38 0.6003 0.5356 0.6021 Michigan St (+7.5) 28 Maryland (U 60.5) 29 0.5326 0.6369 0.5933 ************************************************************************************ * Best Bet against the Over/Under * Virginia Tech (O 50.5) 26 * North Carolina (-8.5) 38 0.7378 0.5670 0.7718 ************************************************************************************ SMU (+3.5) 33 C Florida (O 65.5) 34 0.5238 0.5520 0.5202 Oklahoma St (+2.5) 25 Baylor (U 54.5) 26 0.5066 0.5515 0.6033 Iowa St (-3.5) 37 Kansas (O 58) 24 0.7616 0.6973 0.5674 Rutgers (+41) 10 Ohio St (O 59.5) 49 0.9865 0.5551 0.5134 Alabama (-16.5) 40 Arkansas (O 61.5) 21 0.8603 0.5621 0.5057 C Michigan (+7.5) 30 Toledo (O 58.5) 33 0.5730 0.5908 0.5759 Miami Oh (O 53.5) 27 Buffalo (+1.5) 28 0.5282 0.5620 0.5120 Fresno St (-23.5) 42 Connecticut (O 56.5) 16 0.9292 0.5536 0.5019 Bowling Green (-6.5) 33 Akron (U 52.5) 21 0.7587 0.6276 0.5219 Ohio (U 68.5) 28 Kent St (-8.5) 38 0.7002 0.5256 0.5617 Georgia So (U 64.5) 21 C Carolina (-10.5) 37 0.8094 0.6114 0.6217 Texas A&M (+2.5) 21 Mississippi St (U 45.5) 22 0.5194 0.5420 0.5600 Florida Atl (-3.5) 31 North Texas (U 67.5) 26 0.6087 0.5302 0.6944 S Alabama (U 49.5) 24 UL Lafayette (+7.5) 25 0.5254 0.6952 0.5473 California (U 53.5) 20 Washington St (-4.5) 27 0.6578 0.5538 0.6556 Liberty (-1.5) 27 Old Dominion (O 44.5) 23 0.6017 0.5666 0.5871 Texas-El Paso (-2.5) 30 Charlotte (O 52.5) 27 0.5609 0.5028 0.5525 East Carolina (O 59) 34 South Florida (+8.5) 26 0.6722 0.5114 0.5036 Cincinnati (-10.5) 35 Tulsa (U 60.5) 20 0.7963 0.5903 0.6139 LSU (O 46.5) 26 Auburn (+7.5) 21 0.6160 0.5607 0.5305 UL Monroe (+7.5) 30 Arkansas St (O 60.5) 37 0.6397 0.5202 0.5916 Troy (U 57.5) 21 W Kentucky (-5.5) 33 0.7517 0.6422 0.5598 NC State (O 42.5) 20 Clemson (-6.5) 27 0.6528 0.5018 0.5996 Virginia (+2.5) 30 Duke (O 50.5) 26 0.5840 0.6384 0.6070 West Virginia (U 61.5) 24 Texas (-8.5) 37 0.7641 0.5937 0.5442 Georgia (-27.5) 44 Missouri (U 54.5) 13 0.9640 0.5738 0.5230 Indiana (+4.5) 28 Nebraska (U 61.5) 29 0.5248 0.5764 0.6023 UAB (U 51.5) 30 Rice (+9.5) 21 0.7081 0.5033 0.5649 San Jose St (U 43.5) 20 Wyoming (+1.5) 21 0.5143 0.5509 0.5486 Georgia Tech (O 50.5) 16 Pittsburgh (-23.5) 41 0.9226 0.5238 0.5953 Florida Intl (O 55.5) 20 New Mexico St (-14.5) 38 0.8421 0.5733 0.5840 Colorado (+17.5) 21 Arizona (U 55.5) 33 0.7606 0.6195 0.5379 ************************************************************************************ * Best Bet against the Point Spread * Arizona St (+26.5) 20 * USC (U 61.5) 37 0.8290 0.7117 0.6018 ************************************************************************************ Stanford (U 62.5) 23 Oregon (-16.5) 40 0.8232 0.5064 0.5296 2022 Record Straight-up vs. Spread Over/Under Last Week 40-19-0 0.678 23-36-0 0.390 32-27-0 0.520 Season 146-62-0 0.702 87-121-0 0.418 102-106-0 0.490 Best Bet (Spread) Best Bet (Over/Under) Last Week 1-0-0 1.000 0-1-0 0.000 Season 4-1-0 0.800 1-4-0 0.200 Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net "Printer-friendly page" "Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)" "Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)" To take a look at the underlying rankings click here. To review previous weeks predictions: week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.