The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

Week 13

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

    

     Miami Oh (U 57.5)                 34
     Ball St (+17.5)                   19          0.8375     0.5554     0.6674     

     Bowling Green (+13.5)             27
     E Michigan (O 59.5)               38          0.7513     0.5520     0.6082     

     Kent St (+15.5)                   17
     Akron (O 45.5)                    31          0.8112     0.5491     0.5757     

     Mississippi (O 62.5)              28
     Mississippi St (-15.5)            44          0.8247     0.5124     0.6820     

********************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    W Michigan (+14.5)                33
*    Toledo (O 61.5)                   35          0.5466     0.7669     0.6449     
********************************************************************************************

     Navy (+4.5)                       31
     Houston (O 54.5)                  35          0.5997     0.5054     0.7490     

     N Illinois (-3.5)                 32
     C Michigan (O 53.5)               26          0.6354     0.5518     0.5631     

     Miami Fl (-13.5)                  42
     Pittsburgh (O 49.5)               28          0.7917     0.5099     0.8706     

     Baylor (+24.5)                    20
     TCU (O 50.5)                      41          0.9039     0.5801     0.6972     

     Ohio (U 61.5)                     23
     Buffalo (+3.5)                    21          0.5590     0.5330     0.8378     

     Missouri (U 71.5)                 33
     Arkansas (+11.5)                  28          0.6105     0.6584     0.7054     

     South Florida (+11.5)             30
     C Florida (O 63.5)                38          0.6817     0.5765     0.6003     

     New Mexico (O 48)                 20
     San Diego St (-20)                42          0.9132     0.5558     0.7816     

     Texas St (+24.5)                  17
     Troy (O 48.5)                     40          0.9204     0.5400     0.7016     

     Iowa (-3.5)                       23
     Nebraska (U 54)                   17          0.6595     0.5693     0.7643     

     W Kentucky (-2)                   37
     Florida Intl (O 53)               30          0.6658     0.6212     0.7559     

     Virginia Tech (-7.5)              35
     Virginia (O 50)                   19          0.8396     0.6973     0.5875     

     Texas Tech (+10)                  37
     Texas (O 55.5)                    45          0.6768     0.5383     0.9189     

     California (+7.5)                 33
     UCLA (O 63.5)                     38          0.6080     0.5643     0.6523     

     Florida St (O 44.5)               23
     Florida (+5.5)                    22          0.5019     0.6396     0.5023     

     Indiana (+2.5)                    33
     Purdue (O 47)                     34          0.5037     0.5553     0.8636     

     Tulane (+8)                       23
     SMU (U 66.5)                      30          0.6716     0.5253     0.7855     

     Georgia (U 52.5)                  28
     Georgia Tech (+11.5)              23          0.6338     0.6526     0.5693     

     Ohio St (U 50.5)                  30
     Michigan (+11.5)                  21          0.7104     0.5757     0.5421     

     Kansas (+40.5)                    12
     Oklahoma St (U 69.5)              52          0.9930     0.5175     0.6624     

     East Carolina (+27.5)             21
     Memphis (U 79.5)                  47          0.9336     0.5415     0.7034     

     Connecticut (+5.5)                16
     Cincinnati (U 59.5)               21          0.6318     0.5186     0.9279     

     Louisville (O 68)                 40
     Kentucky (+9.5)                   31          0.6913     0.5223     0.5140     

     Boston College (-3)               27
     Syracuse (U 55)                   23          0.6109     0.5347     0.6374     

     Duke (+11.5)                      17
     Wake Forest (U 57)                26          0.7257     0.5715     0.8515     

     Texas-El Paso (O 47.5)            20
     UAB (-20.5)                       45          0.9261     0.5940     0.8327     

     North Texas (U 63.5)              34
     Rice (+13.5)                      23          0.7564     0.5600     0.6861     

     Florida Atl (-21.5)               43
     Charlotte (U 63.5)                17          0.9405     0.5985     0.5534     

     Appalachian St (-7.5)             28
     Georgia St (U 51.5)               12          0.8465     0.6994     0.7525     

     Southern Miss (O 48.5)            30
     Marshall (-2.5)                   33          0.5720     0.5118     0.7623     

     UNLV (+2.5)                       31
     Nevada (U 67.5)                   32          0.5221     0.5377     0.6147     

     Arkansas St (-8)                  34
     UL Monroe (U 69)                  21          0.7951     0.6288     0.7830     

********************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Old Dominion (+12.5)              35
*    Middle Tenn St (O 49.5)           42          0.6566     0.6190     0.9371     
********************************************************************************************

     Wisconsin (U 43.5)                30
     Minnesota (+17)                   14          0.8557     0.5407     0.5626     

     Penn St (-21.5)                   44
     Maryland (O 57.5)                 20          0.9239     0.5480     0.5913     

     Iowa St (+2.5)                    27
     Kansas St (O 49.5)                28          0.5335     0.5290     0.6084     

     North Carolina (+16.5)            21
     NC State (U 54.5)                 33          0.7709     0.6165     0.5256     

     Boise St (-7.5)                   31
     Fresno St (O 48.5)                20          0.7494     0.5747     0.5223     

     Alabama (-4.5)                    26
     Auburn (U 47.5)                   19          0.6714     0.5563     0.6109     

     West Virginia (+22.5)             26
     Oklahoma (U 67.5)                 40          0.7960     0.7008     0.5670     

     Idaho (+8)                        34
     New Mexico St (O 55)              38          0.5997     0.5816     0.8086     

     Michigan St (-13.5)               31
     Rutgers (O 39.5)                  17          0.8221     0.5191     0.7341     

     Temple (O 57.5)                   34
     Tulsa (+3)                        32          0.5374     0.5335     0.6730     

     Northwestern (-16.5)              33
     Illinois (O 45.5)                 16          0.8705     0.5179     0.5525     

     Vanderbilt (O 45.5)               26
     Tennessee (-1)                    31          0.6256     0.6018     0.7273     

     Arizona (O 74.5)                  37
     Arizona St (E)                    41          0.5993     0.5993     0.5500     

     Wyoming (-20)                     44
     San Jose St (O 48)                20          0.9250     0.5919     0.8223     

     Georgia So (+6.5)                 25
     UL Lafayette (U 57.5)             24          0.5080     0.6690     0.7083     

     Oregon St (+25.5)                 28
     Oregon (O 64)                     46          0.8443     0.6732     0.7186     

     Clemson (-14)                     35
     South Carolina (O 46.5)           13          0.9249     0.6987     0.5249     

     UTSA (O 50.5)                     31
     Louisiana Tech (-1.5)             34          0.5674     0.5317     0.7739     

     Texas A&M (+10.5)                 23
     LSU (U 49.5)                      27          0.5997     0.6670     0.5629     

     Notre Dame (U 55.5)               25
     Stanford (+2)                     24          0.5026     0.5488     0.6686     

     Washington St (O 50)              21
     Washington (-9)                   36          0.8170     0.6338     0.6553     

     Colorado (+10.5)                  21
     Utah (U 57.5)                     27          0.6411     0.6282     0.7393     

     BYU (-2.5)                        30
     Hawaii (O 47)                     21          0.7198     0.6632     0.6131     

     Utah St (+2)                      28
     Air Force (U 57)                  30          0.5479     0.5016     0.5237     


2016 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week         46-13-0    0.780             29-30-0    0.492          29-30-0    0.492
Season           431-155-0   0.740            276-302-8   0.479         350-294-1   0.543
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     1-0-0     1.000             1-0-0      1.000            
Season                        6-7-0     0.462             9-4-0      0.692           
      
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 0 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12

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To check out the NFL page click here.

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.