The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

2018: Week 13

 
 
 

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings .

The results are sorted by start time.

The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O.

The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under.

Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

      

     W Michigan (-7.5)                 40
     Ball St (O 54)                    26          0.7962     0.6473     0.7407     

     Buffalo (U 65.5)                  24
     Ohio (-2)                         34          0.7356     0.6939     0.6549     

     Miami Oh (O 47)                   20
     N Illinois (-6.5)                 30          0.7505     0.5977     0.5123     

     Toledo (-13)                      37
     Kent St (U 58.5)                  20          0.8498     0.5879     0.6024     

********************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Over/Under
*    Tulane (U 68)                     20
*    Houston (-10.5)                   31          0.7657     0.5180     0.8474     
********************************************************************************************

     Florida Atl (O 61.5)              30
     North Texas (-3)                  37          0.6648     0.5977     0.6225     

     Memphis (O 72.5)                  44
     SMU (+8.5)                        38          0.6226     0.5619     0.7133     

     Boise St (-20.5)                  40
     New Mexico (U 62.5)               17          0.9166     0.5473     0.5808     

     Indiana (+28)                     14
     Michigan (U 53.5)                 40          0.9523     0.5543     0.5029     

     Pittsburgh (U 61)                 31
     Wake Forest (+4.5)                27          0.6006     0.5082     0.5367     

     Iowa (-16)                        37
     Illinois (U 58.5)                 12          0.9479     0.7168     0.7279     

     Wisconsin (+5.5)                  23
     Purdue (U 51)                     21          0.5563     0.6939     0.6273     

     Virginia (U 54)                   21
     Georgia Tech (-6.5)               31          0.7343     0.5854     0.5067     

     Northwestern (U 50.5)             23
     Minnesota (+2.5)                  22          0.5269     0.5405     0.6664     

     Duke (+28)                        13
     Clemson (U 57.5)                  35          0.9209     0.6649     0.7351     

     Penn St (-27)                     42
     Rutgers (O 49.5)                  10          0.9815     0.6286     0.5884     

     Texas Tech (O 57)                 35
     Kansas St (+6)                    31          0.5977     0.5447     0.6938     

     Connecticut (+17)                 24
     East Carolina (U 68)              38          0.7966     0.5838     0.6481     

     South Florida (+14)               24
     Temple (U 61)                     35          0.7492     0.5752     0.5352     

     Massachusetts (O 63.5)            9
     Georgia (-44)                     57          0.9983     0.5863     0.5315     

     Georgia So (U 53.5)               30
     C Carolina (+6)                   24          0.6413     0.5034     0.5456     

     Missouri (-6)                     36
     Tennessee (O 55.5)                26          0.7223     0.5878     0.6118     

     Middle Tenn St (O 44)             17
     Kentucky (-14)                    37          0.8948     0.6402     0.7378     

     Ohio St (-16.5)                   41
     Maryland (O 58.5)                 23          0.8584     0.5247     0.5626     

     NC State (O 63.5)                 40
     Louisville (+15)                  26          0.7876     0.5370     0.5534     

     Cincinnati (U 59.5)               23
     C Florida (-7.5)                  35          0.7777     0.6147     0.5833     

     Liberty (U 60)                    7
     Auburn (-28.5)                    42          0.9861     0.6450     0.7091     

     Florida Intl (-6)                 28
     Charlotte (U 48)                  19          0.7306     0.5881     0.5100     

     New Mexico St (+24)               14
     BYU (U 56)                        38          0.9347     0.5079     0.5574     

     Air Force (+2.5)                  27
     Wyoming (O 42)                    26          0.5189     0.5818     0.7392     

     Utah (-7)                         27
     Colorado (U 48.5)                 17          0.7533     0.5884     0.5444     

     Utah St (U 68.5)                  40
     Colorado St (+27)                 23          0.8523     0.7176     0.6133     

     Syracuse (O 62.5)                 28
     Notre Dame (-9)                   37          0.7124     0.5071     0.5575     

     Georgia St (+28.5)                12
     Appalachian St (U 54)             34          0.9251     0.6680     0.7113     

     UTSA (+24.5)                      13
     Marshall (U 44.5)                 31          0.8814     0.6840     0.5833     

     Stanford (-2)                     30
     California (O 45)                 23          0.6631     0.6157     0.6734     

     Arizona St (+4.5)                 34
     Oregon (O 63)                     38          0.5878     0.5163     0.6980     

********************************************************************************************
*  Best Bet against the Point Spread
*    Arizona (O 61)                    24
*    Washington St (-10)               44          0.8821     0.7235     0.6780     
********************************************************************************************

     Nevada (U 58)                     35
     San Jose St (+14.5)               23          0.7772     0.5536     0.5030     

     TCU (+2)                          28
     Baylor (U 53)                     23          0.6166     0.6643     0.5312     

     Tulsa (+5)                        30
     Navy (O 52.5)                     34          0.5922     0.5281     0.7112     

     UAB (O 47)                        20
     Texas A&M (-16)                   43          0.9232     0.6720     0.7834     

     Arkansas (O 46.5)                 16
     Mississippi St (-20.5)            38          0.9122     0.5260     0.7284     

     West Virginia (O 71)              40
     Oklahoma St (+5.5)                35          0.6040     0.5216     0.5420     

     Louisiana Tech (-2.5)             30
     Southern Miss (O 46.5)            27          0.5741     0.5126     0.7431     

     Bowling Green (O 50.5)            26
     Akron (-7)                        34          0.6866     0.5223     0.7035     

     Rice (U 51)                       3
     LSU (-44)                         49          0.9990     0.5383     0.5383     

     Mississippi (+2.5)                31
     Vanderbilt (U 66.5)               33          0.5540     0.5065     0.6026     

     Boston College (-2)               24
     Florida St (U 49)                 19          0.6256     0.5739     0.6456     

     Kansas (O 68.5)                   17
     Oklahoma (-36)                    54          0.9847     0.5092     0.5768     

     Oregon St (U 58)                  12
     Washington (-32.5)                46          0.9824     0.5223     0.5101     

     UL Monroe (O 66.5)                28
     Arkansas St (-9)                  41          0.7721     0.5831     0.5184     

     Texas St (+23.5)                  14
     Troy (O 49)                       38          0.9338     0.5036     0.5747     

     S Alabama (+17)                   20
     UL Lafayette (U 62.5)             33          0.7904     0.6089     0.7149     

     Miami Fl (U 51.5)                 23
     Virginia Tech (+3.5)              22          0.5325     0.5605     0.6869     

     Texas-El Paso (O 47.5)            20
     W Kentucky (-7.5)                 33          0.7995     0.6401     0.5936     

     Michigan St (-2)                  31
     Nebraska (O 49.5)                 21          0.7298     0.6854     0.5584     

     Iowa St (+3)                      21
     Texas (U 50.5)                    24          0.5795     0.5008     0.6685     

     USC (-3.5)                        33
     UCLA (O 55)                       28          0.6287     0.5450     0.6069     

     San Diego St (U 44)               13
     Fresno St (-15)                   28          0.8481     0.5007     0.5838     

     UNLV (+6.5)                       33
     Hawaii (U 68)                     34          0.5155     0.6363     0.5312     

     Idaho (+39.5)                     10
     Florida (U 60)                    42          0.9729     0.6865     0.6546     


2018 Record
                    Straight-up                  vs. Spread                Over/Under 
Last Week         47-14-0   0.770             28-31-2    0.475          28-30-3     0.484
Season           435-157-0  0.735            275-309-8   0.471         319-262-11   0.556
 
                                        
                             Best Bet (Spread)         Best Bet (Over/Under)         
Last Week                     0-0-1     0.500             0-1-0      0.000            
Season                        7-4-1     0.625             6-6-0      0.500           
Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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"Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)"

"Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)"

To take a look at the underlying rankings click here.

To review previous weeks predictions: week 1, week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.