The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings . The results are sorted by start time. The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O. The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under. Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

W Michigan (-7.5) 40 Ball St (O 54) 26 0.7962 0.6473 0.7407 Buffalo (U 65.5) 24 Ohio (-2) 34 0.7356 0.6939 0.6549 Miami Oh (O 47) 20 N Illinois (-6.5) 30 0.7505 0.5977 0.5123 Toledo (-13) 37 Kent St (U 58.5) 20 0.8498 0.5879 0.6024 ******************************************************************************************** * Best Bet against the Over/Under * Tulane (U 68) 20 * Houston (-10.5) 31 0.7657 0.5180 0.8474 ******************************************************************************************** Florida Atl (O 61.5) 30 North Texas (-3) 37 0.6648 0.5977 0.6225 Memphis (O 72.5) 44 SMU (+8.5) 38 0.6226 0.5619 0.7133 Boise St (-20.5) 40 New Mexico (U 62.5) 17 0.9166 0.5473 0.5808 Indiana (+28) 14 Michigan (U 53.5) 40 0.9523 0.5543 0.5029 Pittsburgh (U 61) 31 Wake Forest (+4.5) 27 0.6006 0.5082 0.5367 Iowa (-16) 37 Illinois (U 58.5) 12 0.9479 0.7168 0.7279 Wisconsin (+5.5) 23 Purdue (U 51) 21 0.5563 0.6939 0.6273 Virginia (U 54) 21 Georgia Tech (-6.5) 31 0.7343 0.5854 0.5067 Northwestern (U 50.5) 23 Minnesota (+2.5) 22 0.5269 0.5405 0.6664 Duke (+28) 13 Clemson (U 57.5) 35 0.9209 0.6649 0.7351 Penn St (-27) 42 Rutgers (O 49.5) 10 0.9815 0.6286 0.5884 Texas Tech (O 57) 35 Kansas St (+6) 31 0.5977 0.5447 0.6938 Connecticut (+17) 24 East Carolina (U 68) 38 0.7966 0.5838 0.6481 South Florida (+14) 24 Temple (U 61) 35 0.7492 0.5752 0.5352 Massachusetts (O 63.5) 9 Georgia (-44) 57 0.9983 0.5863 0.5315 Georgia So (U 53.5) 30 C Carolina (+6) 24 0.6413 0.5034 0.5456 Missouri (-6) 36 Tennessee (O 55.5) 26 0.7223 0.5878 0.6118 Middle Tenn St (O 44) 17 Kentucky (-14) 37 0.8948 0.6402 0.7378 Ohio St (-16.5) 41 Maryland (O 58.5) 23 0.8584 0.5247 0.5626 NC State (O 63.5) 40 Louisville (+15) 26 0.7876 0.5370 0.5534 Cincinnati (U 59.5) 23 C Florida (-7.5) 35 0.7777 0.6147 0.5833 Liberty (U 60) 7 Auburn (-28.5) 42 0.9861 0.6450 0.7091 Florida Intl (-6) 28 Charlotte (U 48) 19 0.7306 0.5881 0.5100 New Mexico St (+24) 14 BYU (U 56) 38 0.9347 0.5079 0.5574 Air Force (+2.5) 27 Wyoming (O 42) 26 0.5189 0.5818 0.7392 Utah (-7) 27 Colorado (U 48.5) 17 0.7533 0.5884 0.5444 Utah St (U 68.5) 40 Colorado St (+27) 23 0.8523 0.7176 0.6133 Syracuse (O 62.5) 28 Notre Dame (-9) 37 0.7124 0.5071 0.5575 Georgia St (+28.5) 12 Appalachian St (U 54) 34 0.9251 0.6680 0.7113 UTSA (+24.5) 13 Marshall (U 44.5) 31 0.8814 0.6840 0.5833 Stanford (-2) 30 California (O 45) 23 0.6631 0.6157 0.6734 Arizona St (+4.5) 34 Oregon (O 63) 38 0.5878 0.5163 0.6980 ******************************************************************************************** * Best Bet against the Point Spread * Arizona (O 61) 24 * Washington St (-10) 44 0.8821 0.7235 0.6780 ******************************************************************************************** Nevada (U 58) 35 San Jose St (+14.5) 23 0.7772 0.5536 0.5030 TCU (+2) 28 Baylor (U 53) 23 0.6166 0.6643 0.5312 Tulsa (+5) 30 Navy (O 52.5) 34 0.5922 0.5281 0.7112 UAB (O 47) 20 Texas A&M (-16) 43 0.9232 0.6720 0.7834 Arkansas (O 46.5) 16 Mississippi St (-20.5) 38 0.9122 0.5260 0.7284 West Virginia (O 71) 40 Oklahoma St (+5.5) 35 0.6040 0.5216 0.5420 Louisiana Tech (-2.5) 30 Southern Miss (O 46.5) 27 0.5741 0.5126 0.7431 Bowling Green (O 50.5) 26 Akron (-7) 34 0.6866 0.5223 0.7035 Rice (U 51) 3 LSU (-44) 49 0.9990 0.5383 0.5383 Mississippi (+2.5) 31 Vanderbilt (U 66.5) 33 0.5540 0.5065 0.6026 Boston College (-2) 24 Florida St (U 49) 19 0.6256 0.5739 0.6456 Kansas (O 68.5) 17 Oklahoma (-36) 54 0.9847 0.5092 0.5768 Oregon St (U 58) 12 Washington (-32.5) 46 0.9824 0.5223 0.5101 UL Monroe (O 66.5) 28 Arkansas St (-9) 41 0.7721 0.5831 0.5184 Texas St (+23.5) 14 Troy (O 49) 38 0.9338 0.5036 0.5747 S Alabama (+17) 20 UL Lafayette (U 62.5) 33 0.7904 0.6089 0.7149 Miami Fl (U 51.5) 23 Virginia Tech (+3.5) 22 0.5325 0.5605 0.6869 Texas-El Paso (O 47.5) 20 W Kentucky (-7.5) 33 0.7995 0.6401 0.5936 Michigan St (-2) 31 Nebraska (O 49.5) 21 0.7298 0.6854 0.5584 Iowa St (+3) 21 Texas (U 50.5) 24 0.5795 0.5008 0.6685 USC (-3.5) 33 UCLA (O 55) 28 0.6287 0.5450 0.6069 San Diego St (U 44) 13 Fresno St (-15) 28 0.8481 0.5007 0.5838 UNLV (+6.5) 33 Hawaii (U 68) 34 0.5155 0.6363 0.5312 Idaho (+39.5) 10 Florida (U 60) 42 0.9729 0.6865 0.6546 2018 Record Straight-up vs. Spread Over/Under Last Week 47-14-0 0.770 28-31-2 0.475 28-30-3 0.484 Season 435-157-0 0.735 275-309-8 0.471 319-262-11 0.556 Best Bet (Spread) Best Bet (Over/Under) Last Week 0-0-1 0.500 0-1-0 0.000 Season 7-4-1 0.625 6-6-0 0.500 Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net "Printer-friendly page" "Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)" "Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)" To take a look at the underlying rankings click here. To review previous weeks predictions: week 1, week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 week 11 week 12 Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.