The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2018 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Alabama           107.6344  2.5336
2.    Clemson           105.7829 -2.1495
3.    Georgia            97.3136  2.8342
4.    Oklahoma           93.4096  1.0788
5.    Ohio St            91.6969  4.5768
6.    Michigan           90.1423  6.2871
7.    Notre Dame         89.7418  2.4546
8.    Penn St            88.8647  5.5911
9.    Iowa               88.8302  0.7377
10.   Mississippi St     87.6998  6.5726
11.   Washington         86.9120  3.2474
12.   C Florida          86.6685  1.3779
13.   LSU                86.5253  3.7838
14.   Missouri           86.4907  1.8125
15.   West Virginia      85.7634  6.9473
16.   Utah               85.7294 -1.4822
17.   Auburn             85.1797  5.2818
18.   Florida            85.1262  0.7322
19.   Texas              84.6755  0.0512
20.   Texas A&M          83.6035  3.7525
21.   Wisconsin          82.7721 -0.8585
22.   NC State           82.7266  2.8201
23.   Oklahoma St        82.6260 -0.1029
24.   Stanford           82.4774  3.6645
25.   South Carolina     82.4090 -2.2464
26.   Miami Fl           81.7071  4.4156
27.   Washington St      81.5909  6.7129
28.   Boise St           81.5293 -1.1576
29.   Fresno St          81.2547  4.6260
30.   Kentucky           80.8698  3.8299
31.   Purdue             80.3405  1.7614
32.   Michigan St        80.2529 -0.7504
33.   Iowa St            79.6339  7.0416
34.   TCU                79.3913  1.4917
35.   Boston College     78.8251  0.3268
36.   Northwestern       78.7223  0.4771
37.   Temple             78.5398 -0.3131
38.   Syracuse           78.1292  2.1097
39.   Vanderbilt         77.7335  1.7067
40.   Appalachian St     77.6042  0.5588
41.   Army               77.2319 -5.4698
42.   Georgia Tech       77.2170  5.2257
43.   Duke               77.1199 -4.3430
44.   Texas Tech         76.7856  2.3038
45.   Oregon             76.6811  3.6511
46.   Utah St            76.2208  4.0673
47.   Kansas St          76.2070  2.3415
48.   Pittsburgh         76.0929  1.7010
49.   Wake Forest        75.7717 -2.8763
50.   Arizona St         75.4187  6.1879
51.   USC                74.7608  4.9948
52.   Maryland           74.4876  0.7869
53.   Cincinnati         74.2866  5.5014
54.   Virginia           73.6452  3.1459
55.   Indiana            73.6391  2.5133
56.   Ohio               73.3685  5.7973
57.   Nebraska           73.3319  0.9709
58.   Memphis            73.0304  6.8242
59.   Virginia Tech      72.9904  3.6294
60.   California         72.8748  3.3574
61.   Mississippi        72.7226  1.0586
62.   Houston            71.7953  6.6873
63.   Minnesota          71.5150  7.8357
64.   Baylor             71.2736  3.0598
65.   UCLA               71.2374  0.6065
66.   Tennessee          71.2067  0.3027
67.   Florida St         70.8781  3.2270
68.   San Diego St       70.6766 -1.7851
69.   Colorado           70.5807  2.3543
70.   BYU                69.9525  1.6919
71.   Toledo             68.7324  3.6370
72.   Troy               68.6466 -2.8852
73.   Arizona            67.8718  7.9591
74.   Wyoming            67.2237  0.5404
75.   Marshall           66.4971  3.4655
76.   Florida Atl        66.3189  1.0102
77.   E Michigan         66.2633  1.4348
78.   South Florida      66.0793  1.2983
79.   Buffalo            65.9762  7.0664
80.   North Carolina     65.6394  4.0776
81.   Arkansas St        65.3632  3.1756
82.   Middle Tenn St     65.2316  4.4861
83.   Arkansas           65.1960  1.5955
84.   N Illinois         65.0542  6.2731
85.   Air Force          65.0417  5.4420
86.   Tulane             64.3639  3.7923
87.   North Texas        64.2974  7.6064
88.   Kansas             64.0167  4.9714
89.   Miami Oh           63.9882  2.1504
90.   Navy               63.8864  3.8833
91.   Southern Miss      63.7977 -1.4158
92.   Florida Intl       63.4911  2.3363
93.   SMU                63.0061  2.7187
94.   UAB                62.9823 10.3009
95.   Nevada             62.9286  5.8895
96.   Louisiana Tech     62.9012 -3.8712
97.   W Michigan         62.5859 -0.2568
98.   Georgia So         62.4277  7.6400
99.   Tulsa              62.3654 -0.0094
100.  Louisville         61.5942  0.7191
101.  UL Lafayette       59.8598 -0.5994
102.  Illinois           58.8756 -0.9883
103.  UNLV               57.5201 -4.5555
104.  Hawaii             57.1222  2.6706
105.  Oregon St          56.9707 -0.1214
106.  Colorado St        56.7536  5.2473
107.  Rutgers            55.8051  3.1301
108.  UL Monroe          55.6375  1.4334
109.  C Michigan         55.2660 -2.6014
110.  Akron              55.1012  1.4551
111.  New Mexico         54.5661  0.7162
112.  Massachusetts      54.3747  0.5987
113.  W Kentucky         53.9938  3.5223
114.  Georgia St         53.7620 -5.2942
115.  Bowling Green      53.2872 -2.9191
116.  Charlotte          52.8545  1.8179
117.  Ball St            51.2310  0.1153
118.  San Jose St        50.8050  1.9870
119.  East Carolina      50.8028  8.0049
120.  C Carolina         50.5902  0.5381
121.  Liberty            50.0033  7.7531
122.  UTSA               49.7999 -1.4529
123.  Old Dominion       49.0187  4.3623
124.  S Alabama          47.7021  3.0435
125.  Idaho              47.3492  3.4547
126.  Kent St            47.0613  4.1641
127.  New Mexico St      45.5568  4.3247
128.  Texas St           45.0292  1.8008
129.  Rice               44.6140 -0.8557
130.  Connecticut        44.2429  1.8384
131.  Texas-El Paso      40.7483  2.8911


2018 Ratings (including games through Dec 8).



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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