The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2021 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Georgia           104.6319  3.0392
2.    Alabama           101.0013  2.8808
3.    Ohio St            97.5138  3.6511
4.    Michigan           92.8879  2.8401
5.    Oklahoma St        92.4984  1.0818
6.    Notre Dame         90.9356  1.7111
7.    Clemson            89.0614 -2.9455
8.    Wisconsin          88.6427  0.9815
9.    Utah               88.0557  3.5215
10.   Iowa St            87.8356  6.5524
11.   Cincinnati         87.3620  5.0419
12.   Oklahoma           87.1453  2.2470
13.   Baylor             86.2347  2.1577
14.   Texas A&M          85.7715  2.8545
15.   Penn St            85.3318  2.7745
16.   Tennessee          84.9561  0.3884
17.   Arkansas           83.8628 -1.0703
18.   Mississippi        83.7899  1.9598
19.   Iowa               83.7104  1.0658
20.   Purdue             83.3071  1.2506
21.   Minnesota          82.8914  0.5286
22.   Texas              82.7845  2.5683
23.   UCLA               82.6932  0.7843
24.   Pittsburgh         82.1337  0.6559
25.   Kansas St          81.9041  2.2082
26.   Wake Forest        81.2801  2.3760
27.   Boise St           80.8380  1.4789
28.   Michigan St        80.7659  2.0223
29.   Kentucky           80.6541  4.9095
30.   Nebraska           80.4703  2.6531
31.   Auburn             80.3431  5.0490
32.   Arizona St         80.3135  3.3787
33.   NC State           79.6091  4.4986
34.   BYU                79.1985  3.2416
35.   Oregon             78.8608  4.2780
36.   UL Lafayette       77.8414  1.8168
37.   Florida            77.7634  4.1076
38.   Appalachian St     77.6543  0.4520
39.   C Carolina         77.4047 -1.5733
40.   Air Force          77.1951  4.2983
41.   LSU                77.1371  3.7523
42.   Texas Tech         76.3908  0.9427
43.   Washington St      76.3498  2.0557
44.   Oregon St          76.3263  2.7997
45.   Houston            76.2834  3.1637
46.   Mississippi St     76.1328  2.7712
47.   Miami Fl           75.6118  2.5415
48.   Louisville         75.4074  4.1665
49.   USC                75.3133  0.8904
50.   North Carolina     74.7205  4.8320
51.   Washington         74.2256  2.0850
52.   San Diego St       73.9905  1.2769
53.   Fresno St          73.8550  1.8100
54.   C Florida          73.8318  0.4433
55.   West Virginia      73.7833  5.1054
56.   W Kentucky         73.2735  1.8498
57.   Tulsa              73.2722 -3.5723
58.   Army               73.2406 -0.4675
59.   Virginia           72.8955  2.3839
60.   California         72.8151  3.4158
61.   SMU                72.7806  4.2882
62.   Illinois           72.7023  1.3423
63.   Nevada             72.3928  4.3776
64.   South Carolina     72.3207  0.9035
65.   Utah St            72.2079 -2.1535
66.   Liberty            72.1521  1.3339
67.   Maryland           71.7991 -0.8777
68.   TCU                71.6665  2.6848
69.   Florida St         71.4837  4.5008
70.   Marshall           71.1809 -0.1154
71.   UTSA               70.4383  1.4182
72.   UAB                70.2653  3.7128
73.   Georgia St         69.3155 -3.8609
74.   Virginia Tech      68.5322  4.5995
75.   Missouri           67.9376  5.3778
76.   East Carolina      67.9264  4.8345
77.   Rutgers            67.8488 -0.4791
78.   Syracuse           67.6749  1.7322
79.   W Michigan         67.5588  0.7425
80.   Toledo             67.4338  2.8014
81.   Boston College     67.2663  1.0618
82.   Stanford           67.0136  1.0088
83.   Colorado           66.8750  4.3879
84.   Indiana            66.4376  1.7444
85.   C Michigan         66.4086  1.8118
86.   Northwestern       65.7184  3.8843
87.   Wyoming            65.5497  0.4472
88.   Tulane             64.8547  4.4628
89.   Miami Oh           64.0802  4.7516
90.   Navy               63.9565  0.4031
91.   Memphis            63.4830  6.1424
92.   Colorado St        63.4095  3.2855
93.   Georgia Tech       62.3067  1.3890
94.   Hawaii             62.1542  2.6041
95.   Ball St            61.8298  1.4455
96.   N Illinois         60.5803  2.2668
97.   E Michigan         60.5085  0.7698
98.   Florida Atl        60.3007  3.7825
99.   Arizona            60.2307  4.9457
100.  Middle Tenn St     59.6022  6.3406
101.  San Jose St        59.5903  1.4584
102.  Troy               58.5958  0.4040
103.  Texas-El Paso      58.4159  1.8245
104.  Old Dominion       58.3523  1.7614
105.  S Alabama          58.2841  3.8763
106.  North Texas        58.2694  3.6944
107.  UNLV               58.2497 -1.1813
108.  South Florida      57.5925  2.7756
109.  Louisiana Tech     56.9921  2.1168
110.  Kent St            56.8708  4.5010
111.  Buffalo            56.8054  6.3053
112.  Vanderbilt         56.6878 -1.6406
113.  Kansas             55.6645  2.5898
114.  Ohio               55.4628  1.9318
115.  Georgia So         54.7859  8.1098
116.  Duke               52.9099 -0.1906
117.  Texas St           52.7016  2.3227
118.  Rice               52.3209  0.2010
119.  UL Monroe          52.3153  2.2682
120.  Charlotte          51.9628  2.9176
121.  Arkansas St        51.9533  3.8985
122.  Southern Miss      50.6765 -1.8821
123.  New Mexico         50.4189  1.5032
124.  Bowling Green      47.9607  1.1193
125.  New Mexico St      46.8566  2.6922
126.  Temple             42.4332  2.4308
127.  Akron              41.5771 -1.1087
128.  Florida Intl       40.6461  3.3779
129.  Connecticut        40.3089  3.2516
130.  Idaho              37.6285  4.0440
131.  Massachusetts      36.5345  2.5189


2021 ratings include games results through 1/4/22.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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