The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2016 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                         Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           105.8075  3.2620
     Ohio St           101.4182  0.9551
     Michigan           95.4794  4.2834
     Clemson            95.0820 -0.1069
     Washington         94.2761  3.4147
     Oklahoma           91.1928  1.1599
     LSU                89.0315  3.7771
     Auburn             88.6392  2.6217
     Wisconsin          87.4979  2.7067
     USC                87.2437  5.1727
     Louisville         86.4657  2.8928
     Washington St      86.1668  2.9358
     Stanford           85.5252  1.6601
     Texas A&M          84.2361  0.7934
     Florida St         84.1767  6.2014
     Virginia Tech      83.5140  2.6192
     Florida            82.8718 -0.1501
     West Virginia      82.7360  3.3854
     Utah               82.7009 -0.8934
     Iowa               82.6774  1.2576
     Penn St            81.9713  6.6293
     Colorado           81.9408  4.8141
     Houston            81.4353  1.0937
     Oklahoma St        81.2174  1.6014
     Miami Fl           80.8887  3.9763
     Mississippi        80.7857  3.3227
     Kansas St          80.5702  1.4978
     Tennessee          80.4846  3.2255
     Arkansas           79.8202 -0.6303
     Pittsburgh         79.5471  1.6415
     W Kentucky         79.3374  3.4341
     TCU                79.3119  3.3636
     North Carolina     79.0092  4.6686
     W Michigan         78.9378  2.0635
     BYU                78.7982  4.8061
     UCLA               78.6966 -2.0442
     Mississippi St     78.5818  1.4965
     Boise St           78.4909  0.4143
     Baylor             78.1670  3.2087
     Memphis            78.1161  4.9549
     Notre Dame         78.1052  4.1583
     Oregon             77.8826 -1.8381
     Georgia            77.4365  3.0577
     Nebraska           76.9062  2.6096
     Temple             76.4662  4.7737
     Northwestern       76.4037  3.2215
     Michigan St        75.6616  3.4511
     NC State           75.3944  0.3506
     Georgia Tech       75.1674  5.1214
     South Florida      74.9192  4.1799
     Texas              74.4922  1.4458
     Toledo             74.1597  1.7040
     Navy               74.0290  4.6082
     Minnesota          73.8812  3.9430
     California         73.7041  5.2005
     Appalachian St     73.7011 -2.6451
     San Diego St       73.4278  4.1016
     Vanderbilt         72.7092  2.0744
     Texas Tech         72.6720  2.4257
     Tulsa              72.0964 -1.4255
     Arizona St         70.3878  6.0761
     Duke               70.1154 -0.2284
     South Carolina     70.0691 -0.1526
     Missouri           69.7388  0.2587
     Louisiana Tech     69.6811  5.9663
     Indiana            69.0529  3.5720
     Kentucky           68.0305  6.7358
     Oregon St          67.8982  2.4806
     Colorado St        67.0450  4.7418
     Iowa St            66.8304  9.3559
     Air Force          66.7320  7.5522
     Maryland           66.6811  2.2193
     C Florida          66.3499  0.9808
     Boston College     65.4066  0.7710
     Troy               65.3493  1.5872
     Arizona            64.7089  4.3471
     Virginia           64.5826  3.8803
     Wake Forest        64.4891  5.2160
     N Illinois         64.1725  2.9502
     Wyoming            63.4846 -0.1423
     Syracuse           63.4353  0.8818
     Southern Miss      63.0990 -1.0735
     Arkansas St        63.0102  6.2942
     Georgia So         62.2091  2.9291
     Ohio               61.8855  3.9308
     Middle Tenn St     61.6459  4.7859
     Utah St            61.5042  1.6994
     New Mexico         61.1883  2.1195
     East Carolina      61.0822  2.3978
     Old Dominion       60.4480  0.0376
     Army               60.2777 -0.9526
     UTSA               60.1947 -1.5915
     Purdue             60.1841 -2.6310
     UAB                60.1317  6.4884
     Illinois           59.7333  4.1931
     C Michigan         59.5626  3.8297
     Cincinnati         59.2550  5.3818
     SMU                58.4658  1.0618
     Bowling Green      57.9299  2.4471
     UL Lafayette       57.6390 -2.6395
     Nevada             57.4399  1.1311
     Georgia St         56.8372 -8.5963
     S Alabama          56.7007  0.1704
     Ball St            55.9994 -1.4009
     Miami Oh           55.7331  4.0313
     Akron              55.4832  3.0520
     Tulane             55.4129  1.7020
     Idaho              55.1582  3.7077
     E Michigan         54.2863  1.1489
     Connecticut        53.8179  3.5779
     San Jose St        53.7495  3.3951
     Rutgers            53.6881  2.3452
     UNLV               53.5289 -1.0729
     Kent St            53.3688  1.6520
     Marshall           52.8737  4.8631
     Massachusetts      52.2549  0.5575
     Hawaii             51.8789  3.1460
     Kansas             51.7058  5.1264
     Florida Intl       50.2092  2.2110
     Fresno St          49.6630  2.9285
     Rice               48.8787  1.2433
     Florida Atl        47.9771  2.5388
     North Texas        47.7951  5.8053
     UL Monroe          46.6311 -2.3438
     New Mexico St      46.4474  3.5114
     Charlotte          44.4083  2.9820
     Texas-El Paso      44.3393  4.1632
     Buffalo            44.0746  9.0699
     Texas St           38.4772 -0.2473


Ratings include games through December 3, 2016.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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