The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings2018 Season Ratings |
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Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings. Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here. |
Rating HomeAd
1. Alabama 107.6613 2.9666
2. Clemson 106.6919 -2.6094
3. Georgia 96.1676 3.0343
4. Oklahoma 94.2056 1.0568
5. Ohio St 91.7759 4.4208
6. Iowa 89.1620 0.7264
7. Notre Dame 88.6299 2.6660
8. Auburn 88.5682 3.9653
9. Penn St 88.2586 6.0508
10. Mississippi St 87.9141 7.2353
11. Michigan 87.8217 7.4297
12. Florida 87.2808 -0.1664
13. LSU 87.1910 3.7355
14. Washington 86.8183 3.3625
15. Texas A&M 86.7691 2.6916
16. Texas 86.0497 -0.6205
17. Missouri 85.7172 2.0236
18. C Florida 85.6812 1.6068
19. Wisconsin 85.3216 -1.6761
20. Utah 84.3450 -0.8861
21. West Virginia 84.1588 7.9183
22. Oklahoma St 83.3353 -0.1515
23. Stanford 81.7320 3.7395
24. Kentucky 81.6913 2.8974
25. Boise St 81.5797 -0.9229
26. Washington St 81.4296 6.7771
27. Fresno St 81.3906 4.5363
28. Army 80.7433 -6.6919
29. NC State 80.0542 4.4070
30. Northwestern 79.9856 0.0439
31. Iowa St 79.7881 6.9178
32. Syracuse 79.6530 1.1831
33. Michigan St 79.5589 -0.4120
34. TCU 79.3769 1.6960
35. South Carolina 79.3721 -0.5500
36. Miami Fl 79.3185 5.6353
37. Duke 79.2034 -4.5663
38. Appalachian St 79.0971 -0.1888
39. Boston College 78.3606 0.3954
40. Utah St 78.0823 3.4833
41. Purdue 77.6440 3.2533
42. Oregon 76.8995 3.3022
43. Texas Tech 76.8714 2.0572
44. Virginia 76.6363 1.8044
45. Vanderbilt 76.6162 2.1086
46. Kansas St 76.5213 2.4500
47. Pittsburgh 76.3961 1.4213
48. Temple 75.9779 0.4574
49. Wake Forest 75.6900 -2.5713
50. Ohio 75.3056 4.9593
51. Arizona St 74.8173 6.3360
52. USC 74.6278 4.6903
53. Georgia Tech 74.6267 6.7675
54. Maryland 74.4009 0.7583
55. Cincinnati 74.1944 5.4532
56. Minnesota 73.9767 6.4833
57. Indiana 73.4783 2.6674
58. Nebraska 73.3971 0.7404
59. California 73.0225 3.1340
60. Virginia Tech 72.8571 3.3771
61. Mississippi 72.6430 1.4486
62. Baylor 72.4789 2.8672
63. Memphis 72.4695 6.7339
64. BYU 71.7539 0.7243
65. UCLA 71.3266 0.2902
66. Tennessee 71.0061 0.6036
67. Florida St 70.5347 3.4711
68. Colorado 70.3247 2.5233
69. Troy 69.1683 -2.9575
70. San Diego St 68.4844 -1.0592
71. Houston 68.2557 7.6762
72. Marshall 67.6971 2.8161
73. Toledo 67.6219 3.9310
74. Arizona 67.4841 8.0680
75. Wyoming 67.2718 0.7746
76. Florida Atl 66.5545 1.0475
77. Arkansas 65.6746 1.0732
78. North Carolina 65.6735 3.4624
79. Buffalo 65.4737 7.5475
80. E Michigan 65.4643 1.7875
81. Air Force 65.3374 5.4362
82. UAB 65.2109 8.9902
83. Arkansas St 65.1187 3.5227
84. Tulane 64.7982 3.5209
85. South Florida 64.6987 0.4860
86. Middle Tenn St 64.2065 5.1768
87. Kansas 64.1941 5.0957
88. Southern Miss 64.1325 -1.0296
89. Louisiana Tech 64.1164 -3.9210
90. Miami Oh 64.0592 2.1538
91. Florida Intl 63.9403 2.3177
92. Navy 63.5733 3.4375
93. N Illinois 63.2447 6.9676
94. Nevada 63.2072 5.6789
95. Georgia So 63.0861 7.4743
96. North Texas 62.7682 8.2195
97. SMU 62.4190 2.6511
98. Tulsa 61.7304 0.2750
99. Louisville 61.4833 0.4411
100. W Michigan 60.7825 0.3741
101. UL Lafayette 59.3073 -0.0973
102. Illinois 58.7956 -0.7178
103. UNLV 57.5590 -4.7245
104. Colorado St 57.1379 5.1471
105. Oregon St 56.7872 -0.0400
106. Hawaii 56.5565 2.5051
107. UL Monroe 55.8882 1.4473
108. Rutgers 55.8361 2.9742
109. Akron 55.0696 1.2482
110. C Michigan 54.7634 -2.5617
111. New Mexico 54.7368 0.7729
112. Massachusetts 54.3979 0.8411
113. W Kentucky 54.2534 3.5397
114. Georgia St 53.9524 -5.6751
115. Bowling Green 53.0627 -2.9910
116. Charlotte 52.9944 2.1879
117. San Jose St 51.0102 2.0351
118. Ball St 50.9091 -0.0903
119. Liberty 50.8768 7.0416
120. C Carolina 50.6381 1.1062
121. East Carolina 50.2013 7.6296
122. UTSA 50.1371 -1.6358
123. Old Dominion 48.8073 4.6870
124. S Alabama 47.9366 3.2310
125. Idaho 47.5126 3.5197
126. Kent St 46.9924 4.3281
127. New Mexico St 45.8903 4.4944
128. Texas St 45.3280 1.6772
129. Rice 44.7153 -0.9712
130. Connecticut 43.6718 1.8286
131. Texas-El Paso 40.9068 2.9098
2018 Ratings (including games through Jan 1).
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Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here. |