The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2021 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Georgia           103.4924  3.0234
2.    Alabama           101.8242  4.3634
3.    Ohio St            96.5313  2.2289
4.    Iowa               91.7588 -0.2906
5.    Cincinnati         91.6871  4.5231
6.    Penn St            89.9332  3.0189
7.    Michigan           89.8337  3.1966
8.    Clemson            88.7735 -2.6376
9.    Iowa St            88.7215  5.6389
10.   Oklahoma           88.5291  1.1348
11.   Texas              87.3739  2.1282
12.   Notre Dame         86.6841  1.4442
13.   Oklahoma St        86.2010  0.3670
14.   Mississippi        85.5630  1.5355
15.   Tennessee          85.4511 -0.4734
16.   Texas A&M          84.6326  2.6948
17.   Florida            84.3225  3.4995
18.   Auburn             83.7148  3.6041
19.   Utah               83.4940  2.8342
20.   Arizona St         83.1186  4.0293
21.   Michigan St        82.8424 -0.1386
22.   Wisconsin          82.8073  1.2787
23.   Pittsburgh         81.7247  0.9816
24.   Oregon             81.5659  3.0373
25.   UCLA               81.3594  0.9484
26.   C Carolina         81.2492 -0.4357
27.   Baylor             81.1981  2.8694
28.   Purdue             81.1354  0.8753
29.   Nebraska           80.7767  3.1089
30.   Arkansas           80.6304 -0.1495
31.   Wake Forest        80.3357  1.9512
32.   USC                80.0471  1.5876
33.   Kentucky           79.7058  5.3426
34.   Minnesota          79.2704  1.0033
35.   Boise St           79.1476  0.9728
36.   Kansas St          79.0818  2.3597
37.   Washington         78.8588  2.7260
38.   LSU                78.2593  3.7204
39.   TCU                78.0563  2.1367
40.   Oregon St          77.8558  0.7434
41.   UL Lafayette       77.8216  1.9145
42.   BYU                77.7729  3.3617
43.   Air Force          77.4638  4.3349
44.   NC State           77.3382  4.3151
45.   Virginia           76.0491  3.1183
46.   Indiana            75.7213  3.6935
47.   North Carolina     75.6649  4.2555
48.   San Diego St       74.6017  2.3658
49.   Houston            74.4239  3.0009
50.   Appalachian St     74.3611 -0.3090
51.   Mississippi St     73.9885  2.5945
52.   Louisville         73.9853  4.2591
53.   Miami Fl           73.8676  3.5840
54.   Stanford           73.8651  3.3017
55.   Texas Tech         73.6319  2.0465
56.   Fresno St          73.5306  2.9288
57.   Virginia Tech      73.4532  3.2419
58.   C Florida          73.0687  0.9940
59.   West Virginia      72.7202  4.4173
60.   Army               72.3551  0.7371
61.   Northwestern       72.2151  3.2449
62.   Liberty            71.7754  3.9492
63.   Rutgers            71.3345  1.3031
64.   SMU                71.2975  2.6899
65.   Washington St      71.2940  3.5106
66.   Nevada             70.6927  4.6648
67.   Marshall           70.2627  1.1712
68.   Boston College     70.0792  0.6988
69.   UAB                70.0637  5.4897
70.   California         69.9837  2.0055
71.   Colorado St        69.9663  4.2186
72.   W Michigan         69.9458  2.0399
73.   Syracuse           69.8640  0.8719
74.   South Carolina     69.6224  0.6934
75.   Tulsa              69.3368 -2.6178
76.   UTSA               69.3362  1.0825
77.   Ball St            68.5204  1.1605
78.   Florida St         68.4416  4.5537
79.   Maryland           68.2221  0.8795
80.   Colorado           67.9950  3.3726
81.   Wyoming            67.7535  2.8926
82.   Toledo             67.1095  2.2440
83.   Illinois           66.9769  1.9133
84.   Florida Atl        66.7377  4.5957
85.   Missouri           66.1276  4.9336
86.   W Kentucky         66.0684  1.1635
87.   Georgia Tech       66.0067  1.5913
88.   East Carolina      65.0160  5.0756
89.   Memphis            64.5068  5.2672
90.   Tulane             64.0187  4.2538
91.   Utah St            63.6209 -0.0591
92.   Georgia St         63.0354 -3.6279
93.   Miami Oh           62.8404  3.9842
94.   E Michigan         62.5067  0.8086
95.   Hawaii             62.3912  2.7834
96.   San Jose St        62.0646  2.3747
97.   S Alabama          62.0026  2.3601
98.   Buffalo            61.5519  7.1954
99.   C Michigan         60.3608  2.8219
100.  Troy               59.9713  0.8353
101.  Louisiana Tech     59.6719  2.6609
102.  Navy               58.4499  0.9293
103.  Duke               58.3871 -0.0891
104.  N Illinois         58.0627  3.3630
105.  Ohio               57.7347  1.5272
106.  UNLV               57.0048 -2.8647
107.  Vanderbilt         56.9268 -1.1445
108.  Kent St            56.8401  4.1316
109.  Texas-El Paso      56.6829  2.2855
110.  Georgia So         56.6743  8.6906
111.  Arizona            55.9704  3.8841
112.  Charlotte          55.8419  3.7980
113.  South Florida      55.7653  2.1843
114.  Texas St           55.2036  1.8430
115.  Middle Tenn St     55.2006  5.5462
116.  Arkansas St        52.5203  3.6498
117.  Old Dominion       52.1668  0.2574
118.  New Mexico         50.4765  2.2410
119.  Temple             49.6764  2.6915
120.  Kansas             49.4958  1.5952
121.  Florida Intl       49.2570  3.7458
122.  North Texas        48.5743  3.5329
123.  Southern Miss      47.6898 -0.4186
124.  Rice               47.5660  0.3324
125.  UL Monroe          47.4089  2.7579
126.  Bowling Green      46.7906  2.4236
127.  New Mexico St      46.1709  2.3056
128.  Akron              43.4058  0.5122
129.  Idaho              41.0418  3.5632
130.  Connecticut        40.8477  3.0062
131.  Massachusetts      38.3446  2.5725



2021 ratings include games results through 10/16/21.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

Back to Ed and Theresa's Homepage