The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2018 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Alabama           111.2667  1.9378
2.    Ohio St            98.6188  2.9357
3.    Georgia            97.6802  2.1696
4.    Oklahoma           97.4583  1.1730
5.    Clemson            97.2298 -1.3899
6.    Penn St            96.6144  3.2811
7.    Oklahoma St        93.9826 -0.1933
8.    Washington         91.7858  4.4310
9.    Auburn             90.7853  6.4212
10.   Wisconsin          90.6663  0.0573
11.   Virginia Tech      89.9362  6.0743
12.   LSU                89.6793  2.3478
13.   TCU                89.5717  1.6457
14.   Mississippi St     88.5663  3.3997
15.   Stanford           87.3379  4.8389
16.   Michigan           86.5827  5.1305
17.   Miami Fl           85.8504  4.6161
18.   Boise St           85.2051 -1.0178
19.   Iowa               85.1773  4.9518
20.   C Florida          85.1239  0.8267
21.   Texas A&M          84.7322  3.0200
22.   NC State           83.3653  1.7490
23.   Texas              82.1318  0.6801
24.   Notre Dame         82.0149  3.7392
25.   West Virginia      81.9712  3.0812
26.   Duke               81.7410  1.6596
27.   Utah               81.1794 -1.3408
28.   Boston College     80.9689 -1.1003
29.   South Carolina     80.3353 -2.0462
30.   Iowa St            79.7495  8.3838
31.   Washington St      79.3366  7.9755
32.   Michigan St        79.0738  3.1448
33.   Louisville         78.9778  3.6420
34.   USC                78.7515  4.8049
35.   Kansas St          78.2603  0.0681
36.   Appalachian St     77.9292  0.0098
37.   Fresno St          77.8836  6.4931
38.   Memphis            77.8781  5.2302
39.   Wake Forest        77.5843  2.9428
40.   Missouri           77.5819  2.2769
41.   San Diego St       76.4667  0.4970
42.   South Florida      75.9602  4.9312
43.   Vanderbilt         75.7131  1.4388
44.   Arizona St         75.4549  5.7666
45.   Colorado           75.4513  4.2566
46.   Syracuse           75.3792  2.7497
47.   Minnesota          75.2103  3.9056
48.   Florida            74.9897  3.4250
49.   Mississippi        74.9735  1.7221
50.   Purdue             74.7586 -2.3553
51.   Georgia Tech       74.7097  6.9924
52.   Kentucky           74.2949  2.6619
53.   Texas Tech         74.2503  1.6113
54.   Northwestern       74.1437  1.3287
55.   Oregon             73.8018  2.3531
56.   Pittsburgh         73.7667 -0.5383
57.   Indiana            73.7103  3.8156
58.   Florida St         72.9668  3.9376
59.   Houston            72.7447  5.6685
60.   California         72.2325  6.9232
61.   Temple             71.2512 -0.9751
62.   Army               71.2225 -3.3343
63.   BYU                71.1484  1.6720
64.   Baylor             70.4200  1.2822
65.   Navy               70.4124  3.0698
66.   Nebraska           70.3391  1.2710
67.   Utah St            70.1758  3.9104
68.   Maryland           69.7369 -3.0472
69.   Virginia           69.7236  3.2592
70.   Troy               69.4373 -2.8368
71.   UCLA               68.6924  0.0784
72.   Toledo             68.4968  3.1258
73.   Tulsa              66.8505 -2.0653
74.   Arkansas St        66.8335  5.1982
75.   Arizona            66.7564  5.3073
76.   Tennessee          66.6567  0.7836
77.   Florida Atl        66.4822  2.7816
78.   North Carolina     66.0953  2.0413
79.   Ohio               66.0052  4.6252
80.   Arkansas           65.5806 -3.2006
81.   Cincinnati         65.3643  1.6874
82.   North Texas        65.2263  6.6368
83.   Louisiana Tech     65.1354  1.3937
84.   Wyoming            65.0306  0.9399
85.   N Illinois         64.8460  5.2592
86.   W Michigan         64.3556  2.3410
87.   E Michigan         64.1754  1.3905
88.   Air Force          64.1652  4.0323
89.   Marshall           63.9578  2.1450
90.   UNLV               63.9410 -3.5507
91.   W Kentucky         62.6699  3.4165
92.   Kansas             62.6252  5.8776
93.   Tulane             62.1908  4.8353
94.   SMU                61.7095  2.7649
95.   Southern Miss      61.3878 -1.6244
96.   East Carolina      60.3451  6.3344
97.   Illinois           60.1810  0.4500
98.   Buffalo            60.0732  9.2966
99.   Colorado St        59.4030  4.9947
100.  Hawaii             59.2507  4.3983
101.  Georgia So         59.2280  4.4172
102.  C Michigan         58.6398 -0.5067
103.  Florida Intl       58.4730  6.8207
104.  New Mexico         57.6603  4.1613
105.  Nevada             57.4972  3.8990
106.  Oregon St          57.4459  5.1080
107.  Akron              57.2360  4.4316
108.  Middle Tenn St     57.0775  4.4773
109.  UTSA               56.0659 -0.8067
110.  UL Monroe          55.4112 -0.8870
111.  Georgia St         54.7892 -6.9869
112.  Miami Oh           54.3877  2.4814
113.  C Carolina         54.3445  8.1597
114.  Rutgers            53.8495  3.8788
115.  Liberty            53.3283 12.7725
116.  S Alabama          52.6032  2.9235
117.  UAB                52.1457  9.9463
118.  UL Lafayette       52.0956 -1.4083
119.  Massachusetts      51.5540  2.1060
120.  Bowling Green      50.8008 -1.1270
121.  Ball St            49.9692 -3.2699
122.  Idaho              49.6955  2.9482
123.  Connecticut        49.4364  2.6647
124.  San Jose St        47.9694  3.8019
125.  Kent St            47.6045  0.6108
126.  Rice               47.1856  1.3441
127.  New Mexico St      46.0237  4.1519
128.  Old Dominion       45.7008  2.9069
129.  Charlotte          44.0103 -0.3008
130.  Texas St           39.2985  1.8401
131.  Texas-El Paso      38.5775  3.1775


2018 Ratings (including games through Sept 15).



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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