The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2021 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                           Rating      HomeAd
1.    Georgia           104.10140  2.88764003
2.    Alabama           100.14316  2.69674948
3.    Ohio St            99.86520  2.38667799
4.    Oklahoma St        92.90216  0.49007139
5.    Notre Dame         91.32282  1.13787699
6.    Wisconsin          90.79731  0.62915119
7.    Michigan           90.43847  3.12928576
8.    Penn St            87.75398  2.10348919
9.    Clemson            87.71233 -2.88128027
10.   Cincinnati         87.31571  5.54898047
11.   Iowa St            86.97021  6.46420599
12.   Iowa               86.85510  0.19806092
13.   Utah               86.70961  4.53687809
14.   Texas A&M          86.41951  3.33932367
15.   Tennessee          85.52847 -0.12434173
16.   Oklahoma           85.48347  2.28126767
17.   Mississippi        84.46617  1.79914737
18.   Baylor             83.88633  2.97201243
19.   Boise St           82.62538  0.57111343
20.   Purdue             82.51876  0.28589283
21.   Arkansas           82.21572 -0.91037528
22.   UCLA               81.89745  0.46921617
23.   Texas              81.84831  2.41578627
24.   Minnesota          81.63547 -0.14390274
25.   Oregon             81.40749  3.40023086
26.   Pittsburgh         81.11056  0.74574046
27.   Arizona St         80.66195  3.28519730
28.   Nebraska           80.59140  3.03574153
29.   Wake Forest        80.54551  2.82085969
30.   Auburn             80.54382  4.46196481
31.   NC State           80.28741  4.64764680
32.   Appalachian St     79.81340 -0.59281431
33.   BYU                79.79512  3.34808991
34.   Kansas St          79.54997  2.67461818
35.   Florida            79.18526  4.56040003
36.   Michigan St        79.10140  1.77836353
37.   C Carolina         79.07139 -2.06860242
38.   Mississippi St     78.78248  2.17129479
39.   LSU                78.00461  2.58941670
40.   Oregon St          77.98795  2.21130196
41.   UL Lafayette       77.98595  2.92226187
42.   Kentucky           77.93119  5.51367991
43.   Louisville         77.60716  4.98693125
44.   Air Force          76.42600  4.06924011
45.   USC                76.37342  0.71332059
46.   Washington         76.30962  3.03496620
47.   North Carolina     76.03899  4.63934992
48.   Houston            75.26517  2.95552132
49.   Washington St      75.26058  2.47489474
50.   Miami Fl           74.95847  2.80587117
51.   California         74.22389  2.69030882
52.   Virginia           74.18358  2.59480907
53.   San Diego St       74.08121  1.47220818
54.   West Virginia      73.81550  5.55025194
55.   C Florida          73.47797  1.24549000
56.   Marshall           73.27206  0.34711165
57.   Fresno St          73.19327  1.93852328
58.   Army               73.10491 -0.97913830
59.   Tulsa              72.94236 -3.81457065
60.   SMU                72.78699  4.34344251
61.   Texas Tech         72.28916  2.01609496
62.   UTSA               72.25287  0.33500362
63.   South Carolina     72.13638  1.80122202
64.   Illinois           71.96555  0.16987203
65.   TCU                71.86895  2.23897906
66.   Nevada             71.71461  4.29095811
67.   Florida St         71.56266  4.35343821
68.   Virginia Tech      71.16284  4.34649065
69.   Rutgers            71.04639 -0.49727783
70.   Liberty            70.61527  2.94283172
71.   W Kentucky         69.31849  2.89301723
72.   Boston College     69.21264  1.55171848
73.   Syracuse           68.89479  1.60803219
74.   UAB                68.68133  4.24867544
75.   East Carolina      68.31143  5.41271415
76.   Toledo             68.25687  2.59365601
77.   Indiana            68.10242  1.17018154
78.   Northwestern       68.08672  3.79563494
79.   Stanford           67.76110  1.23739910
80.   Missouri           67.57173  5.77199604
81.   Wyoming            67.20250  1.56311321
82.   Utah St            67.10844 -0.79950400
83.   Georgia St         66.89236 -4.55386121
84.   Colorado           66.67235  4.40426509
85.   Maryland           66.33049  1.07593834
86.   Colorado St        65.97158  4.39366547
87.   Miami Oh           64.54997  5.05237687
88.   C Michigan         64.34301  1.77183061
89.   Tulane             64.27502  5.13713326
90.   E Michigan         64.16011 -0.84318003
91.   W Michigan         63.62750  2.09080197
92.   Memphis            63.58592  6.45898699
93.   Georgia Tech       63.42853  1.41805174
94.   Ball St            63.04906  0.44142696
95.   Navy               62.26420  0.90849639
96.   Florida Atl        60.83314  4.91407959
97.   San Jose St        60.60515  1.81446466
98.   Arizona            60.37100  5.26537904
99.   Troy               60.17582  0.05798053
100.  N Illinois         59.87211  3.11225328
101.  Hawaii             59.40557  3.59912529
102.  UNLV               58.97288 -2.04736115
103.  Ohio               57.99848  1.27496649
104.  Kent St            57.81743  3.87561600
105.  Buffalo            57.79537  6.49989861
106.  Louisiana Tech     57.57461  1.66236499
107.  Old Dominion       57.38681  0.63466770
108.  Texas-El Paso      57.18235  2.22822885
109.  S Alabama          57.09032  4.40729128
110.  South Florida      56.97409  2.75739214
111.  Vanderbilt         56.97033 -2.03250911
112.  Middle Tenn St     56.92505  7.06218199
113.  North Texas        55.94825  2.39594405
114.  Georgia So         55.34342  7.93512490
115.  Kansas             54.74808  1.29861217
116.  Duke               54.67816 -0.05961867
117.  Arkansas St        52.58429  3.70334363
118.  Charlotte          52.07089  3.20701500
119.  Texas St           52.00116  2.54957729
120.  New Mexico         51.24694  1.63613179
121.  Rice               50.99255 -0.55040232
122.  UL Monroe          49.97152  3.05033325
123.  Southern Miss      49.30864 -2.24161142
124.  Bowling Green      47.12290  0.33447899
125.  New Mexico St      45.80842  2.26528616
126.  Temple             43.44787  1.91037340
127.  Akron              42.51346 -1.53502321
128.  Florida Intl       41.19435  2.62817003
129.  Connecticut        39.88171  2.32941825
130.  Idaho              38.64783  4.25548114
131.  Massachusetts      37.17532  2.98692331


2021 ratings include games results through 11/20/21.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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