The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2017 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Alabama           103.0055  2.7492
2.    Clemson            97.7437 -0.9673
3.    Ohio St            97.1636  2.7362
4.    Wisconsin          92.0729  2.0596
5.    Oklahoma           91.5482  0.7046
6.    Auburn             90.9932  4.8491
7.    Washington         90.9556  3.8498
8.    Georgia            90.8467  3.2875
9.    Penn St            90.6481  7.2012
10.   Oklahoma St        88.5243 -0.6549
11.   TCU                88.2737  1.1939
12.   Miami Fl           88.1785  3.1338
13.   Notre Dame         87.1432  4.6511
14.   Virginia Tech      86.6384  6.1871
15.   Michigan           85.5844  2.6216
16.   LSU                84.8932  1.7363
17.   USC                84.5406  4.0353
18.   Stanford           83.5762  3.4785
19.   Mississippi St     82.5404  4.3009
20.   Texas A&M          82.4892  1.0901
21.   Texas              81.9117 -0.5477
22.   Louisville         81.6075  5.3953
23.   C Florida          81.2816  1.9551
24.   NC State           80.1753  1.7849
25.   Boise St           80.1319 -2.1951
26.   Washington St      80.1292  7.1502
27.   Iowa               79.5145  5.5210
28.   Northwestern       79.1340  3.5989
29.   West Virginia      78.8997  2.6398
30.   Wake Forest        78.2699  4.4746
31.   Utah               78.2092 -0.3629
32.   Iowa St            77.7122  8.1115
33.   Georgia Tech       77.6305  7.6418
34.   Florida St         77.3155  5.5760
35.   Kansas St          77.2923  1.8041
36.   South Carolina     76.4409 -2.1186
37.   Boston College     76.3139 -0.5097
38.   Michigan St        75.9553  5.0421
39.   Memphis            75.7625  4.0654
40.   Purdue             75.6535 -2.1836
41.   San Diego St       75.4382 -0.5743
42.   South Florida      75.4232  4.5976
43.   Pittsburgh         74.9931 -0.0352
44.   Missouri           74.6903  0.7500
45.   UCLA               74.1668  1.9064
46.   Oregon             74.1176  2.0414
47.   Texas Tech         73.8805  0.9398
48.   Indiana            73.2974  3.8938
49.   Florida            73.2878  3.9687
50.   Duke               72.9272  2.6239
51.   Houston            72.7912  3.4437
52.   Arizona St         72.2395  3.8214
53.   Toledo             72.1413  1.8537
54.   Navy               72.1072  0.4598
55.   W Michigan         72.0644  1.2420
56.   Arizona            71.9639  5.6114
57.   Colorado           71.9586  4.5449
58.   Arkansas           71.8886 -1.7814
59.   Mississippi        71.6998  4.2125
60.   Minnesota          71.6365  3.3678
61.   California         71.6059  8.1533
62.   Nebraska           70.5128  2.3883
63.   North Carolina     69.8479  1.8231
64.   Syracuse           69.8342  1.9378
65.   Virginia           69.4148  1.1796
66.   Tennessee          69.2078  0.9650
67.   Kentucky           68.7216  4.7793
68.   N Illinois         68.3509  4.5043
69.   Baylor             68.2745  1.9557
70.   Army               67.6871 -3.5358
71.   Colorado St        67.5715  3.0029
72.   Temple             66.6471  2.1935
73.   Maryland           66.6209  0.7867
74.   Arkansas St        66.5793  5.9639
75.   Troy               66.5750 -1.7543
76.   Appalachian St     66.4841  0.3880
77.   Florida Atl        65.9714  0.5018
78.   SMU                65.9052  1.7255
79.   Ohio               65.7790  4.8215
80.   Wyoming            65.7781  1.4541
81.   Tulsa              65.2159 -0.0778
82.   Fresno St          64.9827  4.2364
83.   Vanderbilt         64.9294  0.7921
84.   Utah St            64.5040  2.0719
85.   Air Force          62.1099  4.3707
86.   Southern Miss      61.9328 -1.8864
87.   C Michigan         61.8794  0.8274
88.   E Michigan         61.8296  2.1835
89.   Marshall           61.6665  3.2350
90.   BYU                61.6430  3.7317
91.   W Kentucky         61.5746  2.0322
92.   UNLV               61.2621 -4.4234
93.   Louisiana Tech     61.1691  2.0038
94.   Massachusetts      60.4588 -0.1469
95.   Tulane             60.4087  4.6241
96.   UTSA               60.3985 -1.0089
97.   Oregon St          59.7572  3.0536
98.   Nevada             58.7906  3.3929
99.   Rutgers            58.2547  2.7867
100.  Illinois           58.1778  2.7276
101.  Miami Oh           57.3131  1.9584
102.  Middle Tenn St     55.7348  3.5633
103.  Cincinnati         55.7240  2.9584
104.  East Carolina      55.2831  3.3937
105.  UL Lafayette       55.0861 -1.7231
106.  Georgia St         55.0318 -5.5769
107.  Akron              55.0173  3.5088
108.  North Texas        54.7659  6.8865
109.  UAB                54.5084  7.1221
110.  UL Monroe          54.4276 -1.4075
111.  Idaho              54.0353  2.4377
112.  Georgia So         53.6738  4.2855
113.  Buffalo            53.3959  9.9897
114.  Connecticut        53.1669  2.6837
115.  Bowling Green      53.0037  0.1833
116.  New Mexico St      52.8011  5.4130
117.  New Mexico         52.7604  5.2030
118.  Old Dominion       52.7240  0.9612
119.  Florida Intl       51.1327  3.4915
120.  S Alabama          50.6985  3.5124
121.  Hawaii             48.5363  3.7113
122.  Kansas             48.0596  5.0776
123.  Kent St            44.1793  0.9281
124.  Ball St            42.9340 -1.6186
125.  Rice               42.4968  1.0216
126.  Texas St           41.7179  0.3105
127.  Charlotte          41.4058 -0.8958
128.  San Jose St        39.1089  3.3050
129.  Texas-El Paso      37.7166  3.3306


Ratings include games through 11/18/2017.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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