The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2018 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Alabama           107.6613  2.9666
2.    Clemson           106.6919 -2.6094
3.    Georgia            96.1676  3.0343
4.    Oklahoma           94.2056  1.0568
5.    Ohio St            91.7759  4.4208
6.    Iowa               89.1620  0.7264
7.    Notre Dame         88.6299  2.6660
8.    Auburn             88.5682  3.9653
9.    Penn St            88.2586  6.0508
10.   Mississippi St     87.9141  7.2353
11.   Michigan           87.8217  7.4297
12.   Florida            87.2808 -0.1664
13.   LSU                87.1910  3.7355
14.   Washington         86.8183  3.3625
15.   Texas A&M          86.7691  2.6916
16.   Texas              86.0497 -0.6205
17.   Missouri           85.7172  2.0236
18.   C Florida          85.6812  1.6068
19.   Wisconsin          85.3216 -1.6761
20.   Utah               84.3450 -0.8861
21.   West Virginia      84.1588  7.9183
22.   Oklahoma St        83.3353 -0.1515
23.   Stanford           81.7320  3.7395
24.   Kentucky           81.6913  2.8974
25.   Boise St           81.5797 -0.9229
26.   Washington St      81.4296  6.7771
27.   Fresno St          81.3906  4.5363
28.   Army               80.7433 -6.6919
29.   NC State           80.0542  4.4070
30.   Northwestern       79.9856  0.0439
31.   Iowa St            79.7881  6.9178
32.   Syracuse           79.6530  1.1831
33.   Michigan St        79.5589 -0.4120
34.   TCU                79.3769  1.6960
35.   South Carolina     79.3721 -0.5500
36.   Miami Fl           79.3185  5.6353
37.   Duke               79.2034 -4.5663
38.   Appalachian St     79.0971 -0.1888
39.   Boston College     78.3606  0.3954
40.   Utah St            78.0823  3.4833
41.   Purdue             77.6440  3.2533
42.   Oregon             76.8995  3.3022
43.   Texas Tech         76.8714  2.0572
44.   Virginia           76.6363  1.8044
45.   Vanderbilt         76.6162  2.1086
46.   Kansas St          76.5213  2.4500
47.   Pittsburgh         76.3961  1.4213
48.   Temple             75.9779  0.4574
49.   Wake Forest        75.6900 -2.5713
50.   Ohio               75.3056  4.9593
51.   Arizona St         74.8173  6.3360
52.   USC                74.6278  4.6903
53.   Georgia Tech       74.6267  6.7675
54.   Maryland           74.4009  0.7583
55.   Cincinnati         74.1944  5.4532
56.   Minnesota          73.9767  6.4833
57.   Indiana            73.4783  2.6674
58.   Nebraska           73.3971  0.7404
59.   California         73.0225  3.1340
60.   Virginia Tech      72.8571  3.3771
61.   Mississippi        72.6430  1.4486
62.   Baylor             72.4789  2.8672
63.   Memphis            72.4695  6.7339
64.   BYU                71.7539  0.7243
65.   UCLA               71.3266  0.2902
66.   Tennessee          71.0061  0.6036
67.   Florida St         70.5347  3.4711
68.   Colorado           70.3247  2.5233
69.   Troy               69.1683 -2.9575
70.   San Diego St       68.4844 -1.0592
71.   Houston            68.2557  7.6762
72.   Marshall           67.6971  2.8161
73.   Toledo             67.6219  3.9310
74.   Arizona            67.4841  8.0680
75.   Wyoming            67.2718  0.7746
76.   Florida Atl        66.5545  1.0475
77.   Arkansas           65.6746  1.0732
78.   North Carolina     65.6735  3.4624
79.   Buffalo            65.4737  7.5475
80.   E Michigan         65.4643  1.7875
81.   Air Force          65.3374  5.4362
82.   UAB                65.2109  8.9902
83.   Arkansas St        65.1187  3.5227
84.   Tulane             64.7982  3.5209
85.   South Florida      64.6987  0.4860
86.   Middle Tenn St     64.2065  5.1768
87.   Kansas             64.1941  5.0957
88.   Southern Miss      64.1325 -1.0296
89.   Louisiana Tech     64.1164 -3.9210
90.   Miami Oh           64.0592  2.1538
91.   Florida Intl       63.9403  2.3177
92.   Navy               63.5733  3.4375
93.   N Illinois         63.2447  6.9676
94.   Nevada             63.2072  5.6789
95.   Georgia So         63.0861  7.4743
96.   North Texas        62.7682  8.2195
97.   SMU                62.4190  2.6511
98.   Tulsa              61.7304  0.2750
99.   Louisville         61.4833  0.4411
100.  W Michigan         60.7825  0.3741
101.  UL Lafayette       59.3073 -0.0973
102.  Illinois           58.7956 -0.7178
103.  UNLV               57.5590 -4.7245
104.  Colorado St        57.1379  5.1471
105.  Oregon St          56.7872 -0.0400
106.  Hawaii             56.5565  2.5051
107.  UL Monroe          55.8882  1.4473
108.  Rutgers            55.8361  2.9742
109.  Akron              55.0696  1.2482
110.  C Michigan         54.7634 -2.5617
111.  New Mexico         54.7368  0.7729
112.  Massachusetts      54.3979  0.8411
113.  W Kentucky         54.2534  3.5397
114.  Georgia St         53.9524 -5.6751
115.  Bowling Green      53.0627 -2.9910
116.  Charlotte          52.9944  2.1879
117.  San Jose St        51.0102  2.0351
118.  Ball St            50.9091 -0.0903
119.  Liberty            50.8768  7.0416
120.  C Carolina         50.6381  1.1062
121.  East Carolina      50.2013  7.6296
122.  UTSA               50.1371 -1.6358
123.  Old Dominion       48.8073  4.6870
124.  S Alabama          47.9366  3.2310
125.  Idaho              47.5126  3.5197
126.  Kent St            46.9924  4.3281
127.  New Mexico St      45.8903  4.4944
128.  Texas St           45.3280  1.6772
129.  Rice               44.7153 -0.9712
130.  Connecticut        43.6718  1.8286
131.  Texas-El Paso      40.9068  2.9098


2018 Ratings (including games through Jan 1).



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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