The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2020 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. I am including schools that, as of now, are planning on playing in the spring. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Alabama           109.1659  2.9269
2.    Ohio St           102.5922  4.3438
3.    Clemson           102.5206 -3.1382
4.    Oklahoma           96.6090  2.4442
5.    Georgia            95.9664  2.1354
6.    Iowa               93.7671  0.2434
7.    Florida            90.9983  3.7861
8.    Notre Dame         90.4964  2.1544
9.    Texas              90.0700 -0.0923
10.   Texas A&M          89.8731  2.9629
11.   Wisconsin          89.8437  2.6455
12.   Iowa St            87.7225  6.7654
13.   LSU                86.9170  2.1868
14.   Oklahoma St        86.1647 -0.6098
15.   Auburn             85.7136  4.5205
16.   Penn St            85.6874  1.9306
17.   Indiana            85.3099  3.2453
18.   Cincinnati         85.0874  5.4567
19.   Northwestern       85.0655 -0.8056
20.   Oregon             84.7260  2.9664
21.   Utah               83.9561  3.3144
22.   BYU                83.1511  3.3494
23.   TCU                82.4320  2.2140
24.   C Florida          81.2035 -0.2583
25.   USC                81.0105  4.9249
26.   Mississippi        81.0000  1.5755
27.   Washington         80.9176  2.2679
28.   North Carolina     80.7241  2.9397
29.   Arizona St         80.7019  5.4842
30.   Michigan           79.5555  5.6614
31.   Baylor             79.1516  0.6799
32.   Miami Fl           78.5168  4.6114
33.   UCLA               77.7474 -0.6648
34.   Minnesota          77.5737  4.7715
35.   Kentucky           76.7746  4.0312
36.   Appalachian St     76.6434 -1.6979
37.   West Virginia      76.5969  5.8304
38.   Boise St           76.5396  0.7395
39.   C Carolina         76.4731 -4.2190
40.   Kansas St          76.0308  2.2582
41.   Arkansas           75.9296 -2.0786
42.   UL Lafayette       75.8985  0.2955
43.   Nebraska           75.8585 -0.0810
44.   Virginia Tech      75.5915  2.4979
45.   Wake Forest        75.3821  1.1898
46.   Tennessee          75.2832 -0.3857
47.   Tulsa              75.0321 -0.4476
48.   Air Force          74.8015  5.6656
49.   Army               74.7093 -3.5859
50.   Missouri           74.3305  7.1868
51.   Mississippi St     74.0995  6.0288
52.   Virginia           73.8682  2.4837
53.   Oregon St          73.7535 -1.7789
54.   Purdue             73.4612  2.3353
55.   Pittsburgh         73.4192  1.4094
56.   Texas Tech         73.2610  3.4165
57.   Washington St      73.1325  8.0850
58.   Stanford           72.9289  3.7980
59.   Michigan St        72.7925 -0.6648
60.   San Diego St       72.6086  0.9864
61.   California         72.5444  0.4488
62.   Louisville         72.5394  3.8237
63.   South Carolina     72.1971  0.9529
64.   Tulane             71.3727  6.0849
65.   Boston College     70.8853  0.6492
66.   SMU                70.7648  2.6296
67.   Memphis            70.5393  5.6452
68.   Colorado           70.4610  5.1022
69.   Ball St            69.3586  1.1962
70.   Buffalo            69.2122  9.1309
71.   Maryland           68.9845 -0.9350
72.   Houston            68.8413  4.3676
73.   San Jose St        68.7877  2.4358
74.   Wyoming            68.7176  2.5547
75.   Marshall           68.4980  1.7510
76.   NC State           68.4438  5.2058
77.   Illinois           67.7629  0.4923
78.   Ohio               67.4895 -0.5068
79.   Liberty            66.6953  5.7762
80.   Florida Atl        66.1633  1.6996
81.   Troy               65.4379 -0.2860
82.   Rutgers            65.3511  2.7357
83.   UAB                65.0875 11.3234
84.   Nevada             64.8989  4.3769
85.   Fresno St          64.6783  2.8055
86.   Hawaii             64.5466  1.9682
87.   Georgia So         64.3701  7.7225
88.   Florida St         64.3583  2.7813
89.   Navy               63.8664  1.3502
90.   Duke               63.8144 -4.7408
91.   W Michigan         63.4055  5.0178
92.   Syracuse           62.9121 -0.0287
93.   E Michigan         62.0836 -2.6792
94.   Miami Oh           62.0200  3.6023
95.   Georgia Tech       61.8798  2.2177
96.   C Michigan         61.7935  4.3247
97.   Georgia St         61.7281  1.2734
98.   W Kentucky         61.2511  2.3986
99.   Toledo             61.0500  6.4613
100.  Rice               60.7877 -0.9340
101.  Kent St            59.8669  4.1304
102.  UTSA               59.5935  0.5172
103.  East Carolina      59.2840  6.0371
104.  Vanderbilt         59.2568  1.9186
105.  Arizona            58.8646  5.6602
106.  Arkansas St        58.5437  3.1551
107.  Colorado St        58.1454  4.9767
108.  Kansas             57.8647  0.1612
109.  Temple             57.6476  1.9042
110.  Louisiana Tech     57.2804  1.8933
111.  South Florida      57.1314 -1.6293
112.  Utah St            56.4526  2.5793
113.  Southern Miss      55.7935 -0.3707
114.  Florida Intl       55.6202  5.0065
115.  Charlotte          55.1194  5.0139
116.  New Mexico         55.0737  1.7405
117.  Texas St           53.9501  1.8735
118.  Middle Tenn St     53.2633  7.4702
119.  N Illinois         52.9726  4.7858
120.  S Alabama          52.7249  4.1942
121.  UNLV               52.7114 -4.5408
122.  Old Dominion       51.2934 -0.4923
123.  North Texas        50.0816  7.2442
124.  Idaho              47.9907  3.1511
125.  Texas-El Paso      45.8492  1.3279
126.  New Mexico St      44.9406  4.7439
127.  UL Monroe          43.9888  1.6023
128.  Connecticut        43.6352  2.4653
129.  Akron              37.8967  0.2044
130.  Bowling Green      32.7451  2.5109
131.  Massachusetts      31.6998  1.5688


2020 Ratings include games through January 2, 2021.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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