The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2018 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  

                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Alabama           105.5285  1.5293
2.    Clemson           100.7165 -3.6736
3.    Ohio St            96.3316  2.5646
4.    Oklahoma           95.0027  1.7889
5.    Georgia            94.5841  3.7251
6.    Penn St            94.1133  2.6615
7.    Michigan           89.0591  5.9246
8.    LSU                88.8360  4.6952
9.    Wisconsin          87.8760  0.6347
10.   Notre Dame         87.6612  2.3565
11.   Washington         87.2300  4.8091
12.   Iowa               87.1753  3.0783
13.   Texas              85.7861 -0.0312
14.   Utah               85.4214 -0.9608
15.   C Florida          85.1112  1.7246
16.   TCU                84.6852  1.1147
17.   Mississippi St     84.2689  4.2714
18.   Auburn             83.6641  5.3356
19.   Florida            83.6199  2.3199
20.   Texas A&M          83.4110  3.5259
21.   Duke               83.3098 -0.0741
22.   NC State           83.2624  2.0404
23.   West Virginia      82.9811  4.1638
24.   Oklahoma St        82.9724 -0.6115
25.   Appalachian St     82.7217  0.5395
26.   Miami Fl           82.6422  4.1129
27.   Stanford           82.1139  4.4891
28.   South Carolina     81.4725 -2.5998
29.   Michigan St        81.2810  0.8393
30.   Kentucky           80.9385  4.7038
31.   Purdue             80.8525 -2.0670
32.   Virginia Tech      80.6603  4.8902
33.   Iowa St            80.4205  7.3338
34.   Boise St           80.0979 -0.9015
35.   Texas Tech         79.8357 -0.0562
36.   Fresno St          79.8043  6.6548
37.   Army               79.5756 -5.3354
38.   Washington St      78.6464  7.8735
39.   Boston College     78.5084  0.8187
40.   Missouri           78.4856  1.8788
41.   Northwestern       77.8728  0.7067
42.   Maryland           77.5721 -1.3999
43.   USC                77.4994  5.3100
44.   Oregon             76.5717  2.1572
45.   Georgia Tech       76.4865  5.2527
46.   Colorado           76.3737  5.4177
47.   Syracuse           76.2631  2.0919
48.   Temple             76.1283  1.0061
49.   Arizona St         76.0749  5.8024
50.   San Diego St       75.9801 -0.3960
51.   Kansas St          75.8708  2.5980
52.   Vanderbilt         74.3033  0.6862
53.   Florida St         74.2854  3.1460
54.   Utah St            74.2608  3.7842
55.   Mississippi        74.0150  1.7848
56.   Houston            73.8282  5.1707
57.   UCLA               72.6875  0.0631
58.   Minnesota          72.6705  5.2101
59.   Memphis            72.6685  6.1244
60.   Virginia           72.3974  5.2438
61.   South Florida      72.3336  4.6924
62.   Baylor             72.3229  2.3877
63.   Pittsburgh         72.0062  0.6080
64.   Indiana            71.4216  3.5211
65.   Wake Forest        71.2994  0.4016
66.   Cincinnati         71.0943  1.1326
67.   Tennessee          70.8750 -1.0313
68.   North Texas        68.5758  6.6731
69.   Louisville         68.3847  2.8908
70.   Toledo             67.8673  2.5419
71.   Nebraska           67.8015  0.9747
72.   BYU                67.7286  1.2853
73.   Louisiana Tech     67.4200 -1.7766
74.   Arkansas           67.2705 -1.5211
75.   Air Force          67.0825  4.7805
76.   Troy               67.0112 -1.5867
77.   Florida Atl        66.9958  3.5155
78.   Arizona            66.8440  4.9335
79.   E Michigan         66.5832  0.8455
80.   Tulsa              66.3854 -1.4874
81.   W Michigan         65.3131  2.5593
82.   Marshall           65.1754  0.8055
83.   Ohio               65.1537  4.5772
84.   Navy               64.9837  3.7672
85.   N Illinois         64.9523  5.5490
86.   California         64.8431  4.4554
87.   Buffalo            64.2502  7.4406
88.   North Carolina     63.2343  4.0724
89.   Arkansas St        63.1723  3.8823
90.   Tulane             62.8752  6.0238
91.   Wyoming            62.7929  1.2080
92.   UAB                61.9662  8.0962
93.   Kansas             61.9097  5.0774
94.   SMU                61.8779  2.4823
95.   Southern Miss      61.5842 -1.8160
96.   Florida Intl       61.5347  5.3375
97.   Miami Oh           61.1616  2.6556
98.   C Michigan         60.6526 -1.9968
99.   Middle Tenn St     60.5865  4.4198
100.  Georgia So         60.2798  6.5907
101.  New Mexico         60.2278  2.3958
102.  Colorado St        60.1278  4.5178
103.  Nevada             59.5293  3.9573
104.  Illinois           59.4616 -0.9122
105.  UNLV               58.5288 -4.9038
106.  Akron              57.9204  1.9663
107.  Hawaii             57.0471  4.7731
108.  Georgia St         56.5809 -4.0399
109.  W Kentucky         56.2492  4.5061
110.  UL Lafayette       55.6587 -0.7633
111.  Oregon St          55.2889  4.2590
112.  East Carolina      54.9084  5.7674
113.  UTSA               54.6139 -2.3650
114.  Ball St            54.1923 -1.2233
115.  Liberty            54.1608  7.1925
116.  Massachusetts      54.0337  2.9260
117.  UL Monroe          52.2425  0.0819
118.  Bowling Green      52.0862 -0.5763
119.  Old Dominion       51.3377  4.3598
120.  Idaho              50.2528  2.8357
121.  C Carolina         50.1482  4.0367
122.  Rutgers            50.0533  3.3031
123.  S Alabama          49.0604  3.8799
124.  Charlotte          48.1798  3.2096
125.  New Mexico St      46.4170  4.8002
126.  San Jose St        46.0079  2.5365
127.  Kent St            45.9031  2.6303
128.  Connecticut        45.4795  1.5879
129.  Rice               42.2773 -0.5239
130.  Texas St           40.9915  2.9394
131.  Texas-El Paso      40.9551  4.0832



2018 Ratings (including games through Oct 13).



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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