The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2019 Season Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                          Rating  HomeAd
1.    Clemson           107.9574 -2.4458
2.    Ohio St           106.4980  5.1890
3.    Alabama           102.9593  1.6740
4.    LSU                99.2710  4.7564
5.    Georgia            96.0003  2.5073
6.    Wisconsin          94.1962  2.5847
7.    Penn St            93.3679  3.0442
8.    Oklahoma           92.6131  2.0050
9.    Florida            92.5296  3.5151
10.   Auburn             92.1586  3.5270
11.   Utah               91.4493  2.8541
12.   Oregon             90.3480  3.1850
13.   Michigan           89.5712  7.0423
14.   Notre Dame         89.1565  3.6653
15.   Iowa               88.6869  0.3283
16.   Baylor             85.5038  1.5983
17.   Texas              84.6653  1.3953
18.   Iowa St            84.2591  5.4165
19.   C Florida          84.2376  0.1503
20.   Washington         83.6550  4.2373
21.   Texas A&M          83.1378  3.9573
22.   Oklahoma St        83.1298 -0.4582
23.   Appalachian St     81.8665 -2.5603
24.   Kansas St          81.3977  2.5878
25.   TCU                81.0675  2.1193
26.   Minnesota          80.9245  6.9507
27.   Boise St           79.9869 -0.0885
28.   USC                79.4811  4.6584
29.   Memphis            79.1870  6.2865
30.   Michigan St        78.0715 -0.1127
31.   Mississippi St     77.8740  6.1488
32.   Mississippi        77.8122  1.0335
33.   Virginia Tech      77.5992  1.0702
34.   Kentucky           77.5082  3.4990
35.   Washington St      77.3511  7.6523
36.   Indiana            76.7725  3.1964
37.   Missouri           76.1909  6.3442
38.   Virginia           76.1572  2.5208
39.   Cincinnati         76.0482  6.2630
40.   Nebraska           75.8273  0.4149
41.   South Carolina     75.7760  1.6654
42.   Navy               75.7144  4.0040
43.   Florida Atl        75.5759  1.3476
44.   Tennessee          75.1226  0.2443
45.   North Carolina     75.1183  3.5444
46.   Miami Fl           74.5615  4.3903
47.   Texas Tech         74.5356  3.7335
48.   Air Force          74.5121  5.9504
49.   UL Lafayette       74.1029  0.5700
50.   California         74.0801  0.0525
51.   Arizona St         73.2452  6.0946
52.   SMU                73.2270  2.7971
53.   Wake Forest        73.1230  0.8307
54.   West Virginia      73.0573  4.3921
55.   Purdue             72.5991  2.1570
56.   Boston College     72.5699 -0.7703
57.   Pittsburgh         72.5339  1.3027
58.   Northwestern       72.1057 -2.1674
59.   Army               71.9057 -5.3526
60.   Florida St         71.5416  2.7082
61.   Stanford           71.3668  4.0720
62.   UCLA               71.2507 -1.3983
63.   Temple             70.6299  2.0165
64.   Utah St            70.5332  3.1620
65.   Illinois           70.1818  0.2602
66.   Oregon St          70.1216 -2.2821
67.   Ohio               70.0244 -0.9821
68.   San Diego St       69.6873 -0.5452
69.   Syracuse           69.4938  0.7360
70.   Duke               69.4341 -4.1837
71.   Tulane             69.3145  5.7182
72.   Houston            68.6559  3.7986
73.   Fresno St          68.6331  2.9922
74.   Wyoming            68.6267  3.0621
75.   Louisville         68.5945  2.6763
76.   Tulsa              68.3827 -0.4610
77.   Colorado           67.5547  4.7849
78.   W Kentucky         67.0085  2.7612
79.   Maryland           66.4986 -1.1588
80.   Marshall           66.0359  1.8828
81.   Louisiana Tech     65.8145  0.8989
82.   Hawaii             65.8118  2.0565
83.   BYU                65.6338  3.0456
84.   Kansas             65.3123  0.6213
85.   Arizona            64.9946  6.7527
86.   Arkansas           64.9914 -2.7072
87.   Southern Miss      64.8992  0.7304
88.   Buffalo            64.7840  9.3561
89.   Middle Tenn St     64.3196  8.8319
90.   W Michigan         63.6240  5.9782
91.   Georgia So         63.5998  7.5934
92.   NC State           63.3357  4.7803
93.   Georgia Tech       62.4661  1.7882
94.   E Michigan         62.3828 -2.4360
95.   Ball St            62.2848  1.3295
96.   Vanderbilt         61.4197  2.8645
97.   Miami Oh           61.1442  3.6075
98.   C Michigan         60.8437  4.7400
99.   South Florida      60.7068 -1.4496
100.  Arkansas St        60.6052  4.1987
101.  Troy               60.4650 -0.1803
102.  Florida Intl       59.5393  5.7275
103.  San Jose St        59.0191  2.2071
104.  Colorado St        58.7847  4.5779
105.  C Carolina         58.7267 -5.2393
106.  UAB                58.4837 11.5860
107.  North Texas        58.4009  8.6816
108.  N Illinois         58.2418  6.0003
109.  Charlotte          58.2123  4.4957
110.  UL Monroe          57.3980  2.3468
111.  Georgia St         57.1837  1.1093
112.  Kent St            56.6767  4.4012
113.  UNLV               56.4193 -4.0077
114.  Nevada             55.3080  3.9279
115.  Liberty            54.7539  6.7347
116.  Toledo             54.6233  6.5633
117.  Rice               54.1524 -0.5412
118.  East Carolina      51.9110  6.3651
119.  Rutgers            51.4381  2.8268
120.  New Mexico         51.3972  0.6389
121.  Old Dominion       51.2574 -0.6196
122.  UTSA               49.3003 -0.1586
123.  Idaho              48.1450  3.2309
124.  S Alabama          48.0175  5.0142
125.  Texas St           47.3806  1.1958
126.  New Mexico St      44.9332  4.6732
127.  Connecticut        43.6814  2.2721
128.  Texas-El Paso      42.6913  1.0916
129.  Bowling Green      40.6150  2.5048
130.  Akron              37.3516  0.0527
131.  Massachusetts      33.0056  1.9148


2019 Ratings including games through 12/7/19.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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