The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings2018 Season Ratings |
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Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings. Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here. |
Rating HomeAd
1. Alabama 108.3648 1.4820
2. Clemson 105.5786 -2.3482
3. Georgia 96.7967 3.7502
4. Oklahoma 94.2839 1.7105
5. Michigan 91.9966 6.5466
6. Ohio St 91.4146 3.4607
7. Penn St 89.8514 3.9280
8. Notre Dame 87.5696 3.5632
9. West Virginia 86.7798 6.3734
10. LSU 86.6610 4.7980
11. Iowa 86.3982 3.1273
12. Utah 85.5348 -1.0083
13. Texas 85.2186 -0.9026
14. Washington 85.1275 5.2073
15. C Florida 85.0841 1.4373
16. Auburn 84.6237 4.7827
17. Mississippi St 84.3556 6.3876
18. Wisconsin 84.1600 0.5788
19. Texas A&M 83.5419 3.8957
20. Oklahoma St 82.9057 -0.3313
21. Missouri 82.8385 1.3283
22. Michigan St 82.4183 -0.4802
23. Stanford 82.4041 3.4964
24. Fresno St 82.0602 5.8386
25. Florida 81.7331 1.0276
26. Washington St 81.5144 6.6753
27. South Carolina 81.3436 -1.7766
28. Boise St 81.2531 -1.0525
29. Iowa St 81.1053 7.1782
30. Duke 80.5224 -1.8334
31. Boston College 80.3117 0.8996
32. Texas Tech 80.1466 0.9297
33. Purdue 80.0856 1.8480
34. NC State 79.9552 2.4251
35. Miami Fl 79.4966 4.2727
36. Northwestern 79.2258 1.1819
37. Army 78.6846 -5.8994
38. Syracuse 78.6243 2.1210
39. TCU 78.6068 1.6154
40. Georgia Tech 78.3632 5.1045
41. Kentucky 77.9816 5.2179
42. Utah St 77.6075 3.4065
43. Appalachian St 77.5395 0.3436
44. Temple 77.0808 0.6717
45. Vanderbilt 76.2605 0.1047
46. Pittsburgh 76.2463 1.9465
47. USC 75.7441 4.3455
48. Arizona St 75.4549 6.2961
49. Maryland 75.3325 -1.0602
50. Oregon 74.9181 4.0849
51. Virginia Tech 74.3411 3.8690
52. Cincinnati 74.2995 3.9067
53. Kansas St 74.2907 1.9239
54. Mississippi 74.1697 2.2504
55. Tennessee 73.4726 -0.0645
56. Virginia 73.3699 3.3760
57. California 72.7437 2.9069
58. Wake Forest 72.2785 -0.1162
59. Ohio 72.1944 4.7064
60. Indiana 72.0056 3.6474
61. Houston 71.9764 5.6071
62. Colorado 71.7506 2.8308
63. Nebraska 71.7433 0.9103
64. Florida St 71.4248 3.7588
65. San Diego St 71.4148 -1.3509
66. Memphis 71.3646 7.2100
67. UCLA 70.7799 -0.2539
68. Baylor 70.2720 3.6005
69. Troy 69.8470 -1.8496
70. Arizona 69.2153 7.2706
71. BYU 69.1964 1.4026
72. Arkansas 69.0553 -0.0023
73. Minnesota 68.7163 9.4588
74. Toledo 67.8532 2.4853
75. E Michigan 67.0319 1.4511
76. South Florida 66.9730 2.1845
77. Florida Atl 66.7583 2.6488
78. Buffalo 66.7431 6.7390
79. N Illinois 66.7105 6.8549
80. North Texas 66.6585 6.9246
81. Air Force 66.5450 5.2172
82. Tulane 65.9789 3.3419
83. Marshall 65.9255 2.7245
84. North Carolina 65.7353 3.4929
85. Wyoming 64.7427 1.0635
86. Arkansas St 64.5077 3.3679
87. UAB 64.4109 9.5394
88. Louisville 64.2481 2.8654
89. Louisiana Tech 64.1875 -2.4330
90. Nevada 64.0355 5.3367
91. SMU 63.9278 2.4151
92. W Michigan 63.3551 -1.2549
93. Middle Tenn St 63.2133 4.1244
94. Florida Intl 63.0466 2.2467
95. Miami Oh 62.7635 1.8785
96. Navy 62.5942 3.7384
97. Tulsa 62.5756 -0.2190
98. Southern Miss 61.9393 -0.7258
99. Kansas 61.7225 5.4758
100. Georgia So 60.2633 8.6833
101. Illinois 59.3371 0.9891
102. UL Lafayette 59.3047 0.2531
103. UNLV 57.7036 -5.7709
104. C Michigan 57.2287 -3.2982
105. Akron 56.9968 2.7438
106. Oregon St 56.6212 1.6407
107. New Mexico 56.5496 2.4280
108. UL Monroe 55.9466 1.2168
109. Colorado St 55.6478 5.1333
110. Hawaii 55.3387 2.9970
111. East Carolina 54.5441 5.4246
112. Georgia St 54.4622 -4.7088
113. Massachusetts 53.5759 1.1927
114. C Carolina 53.5205 0.7518
115. Liberty 53.3665 7.9002
116. Rutgers 52.9416 3.7564
117. W Kentucky 52.0648 3.9243
118. Bowling Green 51.9168 -1.4665
119. Old Dominion 51.3514 3.0915
120. Charlotte 50.7538 2.4253
121. Ball St 50.6829 -0.6129
122. Idaho 50.3588 3.1246
123. UTSA 49.6504 -2.5493
124. San Jose St 49.0430 2.7524
125. Kent St 46.9369 4.1040
126. Connecticut 46.7161 2.1519
127. S Alabama 46.6311 2.4352
128. New Mexico St 46.3515 3.8001
129. Texas St 43.8975 2.7892
130. Rice 42.6229 -1.1296
131. Texas-El Paso 42.4614 3.3345
2018 Ratings (including games through Nov 10).
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Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here. |