The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings

2016 Ratings

 
 
 

Below are the ratings for Division 1 Bowl Subdivision College Football. The first column is the school name, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

  
                         Rating  HomeAd
     Alabama           102.5561  3.2485
     Ohio St           101.9400  0.6896
     Stanford           91.6096  3.0040
     Oklahoma           89.8501  0.4723
     Clemson            88.5974 -0.3056
     Mississippi        87.5269  3.5076
     Arkansas           87.1738 -1.4085
     Michigan           87.0504  3.8103
     Oregon             86.5586 -1.3085
     Louisville         86.4884  2.5809
     Baylor             86.4404  4.1003
     Houston            86.3860  0.6576
     Michigan St        85.9687  3.3977
     Washington         85.4502  4.1664
     Texas A&M          85.2060  1.2079
     TCU                84.6126  5.0530
     Georgia            84.1181  3.5262
     LSU                83.9608  3.6741
     Florida            83.9147 -1.2159
     Iowa               83.8961  0.3605
     Tennessee          83.6944  2.8741
     Wisconsin          83.1954  2.8879
     UCLA               82.8645 -2.1267
     West Virginia      82.5910  4.2177
     Utah               82.2834 -0.9874
     Notre Dame         82.1157  4.9424
     USC                82.0160  5.3194
     Boise St           81.8426  1.3128
     Auburn             81.6646  1.5721
     Florida St         81.6337  6.2435
     Nebraska           81.3394  2.3536
     North Carolina     81.1241  6.0213
     Virginia Tech      81.0525  1.7423
     Mississippi St     81.0349  2.0426
     Washington St      80.0306  2.1718
     Kansas St          79.1699  2.6170
     Oklahoma St        78.4144  1.5759
     Georgia Tech       77.6919  6.0970
     Miami Fl           77.6670  3.9068
     Toledo             77.3254  2.8046
     BYU                76.4348  4.9310
     Memphis            76.1299  4.9840
     Pittsburgh         75.9198  1.0308
     Missouri           75.7501 -0.1701
     South Florida      75.7184  4.4615
     California         75.6273  4.4720
     Texas              75.3685  1.4099
     Arizona St         75.2318  5.7017
     Texas Tech         75.2221  2.0665
     NC State           74.9395  0.0521
     San Diego St       74.7984  3.4148
     W Kentucky         74.3898  3.8233
     South Carolina     73.8374 -0.0572
     W Michigan         73.6494  2.2261
     Navy               72.5885  5.4844
     Northwestern       72.3230  3.8607
     Arizona            71.4909  3.7504
     Colorado           71.1146  3.0326
     Penn St            71.1009  5.2534
     Air Force          70.9880  7.5027
     East Carolina      70.3798  2.8041
     Appalachian St     70.1510 -3.0724
     Louisiana Tech     69.9290  5.0740
     Duke               69.7148 -0.2306
     Southern Miss      68.6884 -1.2636
     Virginia           68.6148  4.1756
     Minnesota          68.5597  4.5505
     Indiana            68.5556  4.3145
     Maryland           68.0230  1.5993
     Temple             67.9202  4.8881
     Cincinnati         67.7500  6.1339
     C Michigan         67.6773  4.9561
     Vanderbilt         67.1000  1.3845
     Tulsa              66.3765 -1.2217
     Georgia So         66.1521  4.0370
     Boston College     66.1165  1.1070
     Army               65.8887  0.3695
     Utah St            65.2919  2.2235
     Middle Tenn St     65.0257  5.1169
     Bowling Green      64.6338  2.6020
     Marshall           64.5358  5.3288
     Connecticut        64.4243  3.9435
     Syracuse           64.2741  0.1626
     Nevada             63.2807  1.9464
     Wake Forest        63.1373  5.3555
     Iowa St            62.9062  7.4799
     Troy               61.9765  1.3764
     Oregon St          61.8235  0.7311
     Purdue             61.5834 -2.6608
     Ohio               61.1828  4.8299
     Rutgers            60.9887  3.7079
     N Illinois         60.8401  2.5072
     Illinois           60.7282  4.7758
     Akron              60.6561  3.6663
     Kentucky           59.9501  6.7511
     UAB                59.9439  6.5940
     Georgia St         59.1462 -9.0641
     Arkansas St        58.8906  6.3248
     Colorado St        57.8606  5.1327
     Ball St            56.7390 -0.9507
     UTSA               56.4394 -1.7796
     San Jose St        56.1854  3.7496
     New Mexico         56.1743  1.2247
     S Alabama          55.7532 -0.6168
     Wyoming            55.5734 -2.3633
     SMU                55.1297  1.5493
     UNLV               54.9334 -0.6270
     Massachusetts      54.2210  0.2953
     UL Lafayette       54.1567 -1.9597
     C Florida          53.6324  0.3025
     Tulane             53.1983  2.2355
     Fresno St          53.0178  2.3269
     Buffalo            51.6452  9.2877
     Rice               51.5152  1.5848
     Texas St           51.1141  1.6386
     Miami Oh           50.6723  3.5973
     UL Monroe          50.3418 -2.7190
     Florida Atl        49.6348  3.9946
     Florida Intl       49.6308  2.3716
     Old Dominion       48.4697 -2.2273
     Kent St            48.3023  1.3455
     Hawaii             47.7488  2.8002
     Kansas             46.7662  3.8046
     Idaho              46.4288  2.6559
     E Michigan         45.0636  0.6671
     North Texas        44.2083  5.5016
     New Mexico St      44.1648  2.0663
     Texas-El Paso      43.6188  4.1324
     Charlotte          35.7388  3.3628


Ratings include games through Sept 17, 2016.



Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

Check out the NFL page

Back to Ed and Theresa's Homepage