The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings . The results are sorted by start time. The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O. The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under. Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

Syracuse (O 51.5) 17 Pittsburgh (-10.5) 37 0.8602 0.6986 0.5386 Miami Fl (-21.5) 40 Wake Forest (U 55.5) 14 0.9148 0.5838 0.5761 Houston (U 53.5) 17 Texas Tech (-8) 37 0.8453 0.7246 0.5319 C Carolina (O 57.5) 30 Delaware (-5.5) 37 0.6209 0.5188 0.6678 ******************************************************************************* * Best Bet against the Point Spread and Over/Under * North Texas (+2.5) 47 * Texas St (O 63.5) 31 0.7640 0.7987 0.7739 ******************************************************************************* Arizona St (-5.5) 30 Kansas (O 53.5) 24 0.6147 0.5038 0.5375 Kent St (O 58.5) 0 Ohio St (-52.5) 62 0.9994 0.6484 0.5590 North Carolina (O 44.5) 20 Clemson (-3.5) 24 0.5824 0.5059 0.5155 Buffalo (O 47.5) 7 Penn St (-39) 48 0.9861 0.5331 0.6221 Georgia (O 54.5) 43 Arkansas (+24.5) 20 0.8708 0.5291 0.6637 Bowling Green (O 45.5) 7 Iowa St (-23.5) 38 0.9526 0.6491 0.5200 Tulane (+19.5) 16 Kansas St (U 49.5) 34 0.8286 0.5461 0.5387 Akron (+24.5) 13 Minnesota (U 48.5) 35 0.8804 0.5665 0.5640 E Michigan (+24.5) 12 Wisconsin (U 45.5) 31 0.8587 0.6301 0.5981 NC State (O 52.5) 23 Vanderbilt (-3.5) 40 0.7928 0.7398 0.6752 Wyoming (U 39.5) 18 C Michigan (-1.5) 20 0.5505 0.5169 0.5484 Temple (U 51.5) 16 Toledo (-5.5) 34 0.8299 0.7461 0.5727 Utah St (O 56.5) 14 Utah (-28.5) 44 0.9326 0.5196 0.5671 USC (O 59.5) 45 Rutgers (+24.5) 21 0.8904 0.5063 0.6109 Texas-El Paso (+35.5) 7 Michigan (U 48.5) 42 0.9742 0.5258 0.5207 Florida St (O 49.5) 13 Alabama (-20.5) 40 0.9258 0.6314 0.5590 SMU (U 59.5) 26 Louisville (-1.5) 34 0.6598 0.6315 0.5508 Miami Oh (U 50.5) 14 Cincinnati (-14.5) 34 0.8568 0.6136 0.5147 Kentucky (O 49.5) 14 Texas A&M (-16.5) 40 0.9127 0.6815 0.5520 Louisiana Tech (+17.5) 21 Baylor (O 54) 37 0.7879 0.5293 0.6132 Ball St (O 49.5) 17 Liberty (-14.5) 34 0.8120 0.5497 0.5347 Stanford (O 51.5) 20 Duke (-9.5) 38 0.8210 0.6622 0.5750 W Kentucky (O 60.5) 6 Indiana (-44.5) 61 0.9973 0.6877 0.6138 Mississippi St (U 58.5) 24 South Carolina (-3.5) 28 0.5815 0.5086 0.6321 Charlotte (+19.5) 21 Appalachian St (O 51.5) 34 0.7492 0.6308 0.5336 Florida Intl (+6.5) 31 Florida Atl (U 62.5) 28 0.5596 0.6857 0.5638 East Carolina (O 49.5) 23 Old Dominion (-2.5) 28 0.6102 0.5586 0.5278 Marshall (O 51.5) 27 Missouri St (+3.5) 24 0.5657 0.5068 0.5175 Florida (U 52.5) 20 Auburn (+2.5) 23 0.5617 0.6165 0.7340 W Michigan (-9.5) 27 Rice (U 43.5) 14 0.7603 0.5681 0.5766 Ohio (+4.5) 27 S Alabama (O 52.5) 28 0.5135 0.5795 0.5328 Nevada (-5.5) 30 Middle Tenn St (U 51.5) 21 0.6790 0.5698 0.5502 Georgia So (O 52.5) 26 Jacksonville St (-4) 34 0.6613 0.5844 0.6027 Troy (+27.5) 10 Missouri (U 49.5) 37 0.9252 0.5172 0.5476 Connecticut (O 54.5) 30 Southern Miss (+3.5) 28 0.5345 0.5354 0.5537 Georgia St (+19) 16 C Florida (U 51.5) 34 0.8237 0.5337 0.5889 LSU (U 58.5) 26 Mississippi (+3.5) 30 0.5743 0.6454 0.5965 Michigan St (+29.5) 17 Notre Dame (O 52.5) 40 0.8910 0.6286 0.5642 Colorado (U 48.5) 17 Northwestern (-3.5) 24 0.6487 0.5767 0.6237 West Virginia (U 53.5) 17 Virginia (-10.5) 34 0.8129 0.6319 0.5355 Virginia Tech (U 53.5) 24 Maryland (+2.5) 28 0.5882 0.6374 0.5140 New Mexico (+22.5) 14 Oklahoma (O 47.5) 34 0.8597 0.5577 0.5215 BYU (-17.5) 38 Colorado St (U 52.5) 14 0.8962 0.6279 0.5401 Kennesaw St (+35.5) 16 Tennessee (O 60.5) 49 0.9498 0.5463 0.5384 UTSA (O 58.5) 14 Texas (-30) 46 0.9544 0.5430 0.5009 UAB (O 56.5) 27 UL Lafayette (-7.5) 38 0.7054 0.5689 0.6870 Arkansas St (U 57.5) 17 TCU (-20.5) 40 0.8811 0.5507 0.5473 James Madison (+1.5) 21 San Diego St (U 46.5) 16 0.6123 0.6440 0.6684 N Illinois (+34.5) 10 Arizona (U 49.5) 38 0.9315 0.6488 0.5818 NDSU (-28) 44 Sacramento St (O 53.5) 12 0.9098 0.5528 0.5081 Fresno St (U 50.5) 26 San Jose St (+6.5) 23 0.5851 0.5578 0.5769 Purdue (+14.5) 23 UCLA (O 52.5) 31 0.6550 0.6406 0.5253 2026 Record Straight-up vs. Spread Over/Under Last Week 40-9-0 0.816 20-29-0 0.408 25-24-0 0.510 Season 85-15-0 0.850 47-53-0 0.470 51-49-0 0.510 Best Bet (Spread) Best Bet (Over/Under) Last Week 0-1-0 0.000 1-0-0 1.000 Season 1-2-0 0.333 2-1-0 0.667 Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net "Printer-friendly page" "Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)" "Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)" To take a look at the underlying rankings click here. To review this year's predictions: week 0 week 1 week 2 Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.