The Dr. K. NCAA Football Forecasts

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings . The results are sorted by start time. The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The over/under pick is in parentheses with a U or O. The next 3 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread. The third is the probability that we beat the over/under. Printer friendly links and links with games sorted by value according to spread and over/ under are listed at the bottom of the page.

New Mexico St (+10.5) 21 Liberty (O 46.5) 30 0.6980 0.5362 0.5838 Arkansas St (U 60.5) 23 S Alabama (-6.5) 34 0.7403 0.6070 0.6153 Florida Intl (U 57.5) 19 W Kentucky (-7.5) 35 0.8144 0.6783 0.5818 Delaware (O 57.5) 28 Jacksonville St (+2.5) 34 0.6184 0.6662 0.5662 Texas-El Paso (U 47.5) 20 Sam Houston St (+2.5) 23 0.5720 0.6314 0.6219 Tulsa (U 54.5) 14 East Carolina (-16.5) 36 0.9066 0.6331 0.5894 Louisville (O 53.5) 23 Miami Fl (-13.5) 38 0.7993 0.5383 0.6219 Nebraska (-6.5) 27 Minnesota (U 46.5) 19 0.6789 0.5252 0.5759 San Jose St (+4.5) 33 Utah St (O 65.5) 36 0.5537 0.5418 0.5663 North Carolina (+10.5) 23 California (O 47.5) 32 0.6971 0.5329 0.6286 LSU (+2.5) 27 Vanderbilt (O 49.5) 26 0.5195 0.5775 0.5408 Washington (+5.5) 23 Michigan (U 50.5) 27 0.5996 0.5323 0.5962 Georgia Tech (+2.5) 30 Duke (U 61.5) 29 0.5120 0.5682 0.5942 Connecticut (+1.5) 28 Boston College (U 57.5) 27 0.5246 0.5585 0.5608 Arizona (+2.5) 23 Houston (U 47.5) 24 0.5342 0.5260 0.5306 Baylor (O 65.5) 33 TCU (-2.5) 37 0.5888 0.5368 0.5744 Army (+9.5) 17 Tulane (U 46.5) 23 0.6460 0.5886 0.6165 C Michigan (O 43.5) 17 Bowling Green (-5.5) 33 0.8285 0.7319 0.6321 E Michigan (+13.5) 17 Miami Oh (U 48.5) 28 0.7477 0.5635 0.5839 Oklahoma (U 43.5) 22 South Carolina (+4.5) 20 0.5411 0.5710 0.5805 West Virginia (O 48.5) 21 C Florida (-7.5) 31 0.7108 0.5469 0.5793 Kent St (O 51.5) 14 Toledo (-24.5) 42 0.9477 0.5840 0.6069 Buffalo (O 44.5) 34 Massachusetts (+16.5) 20 0.7851 0.5706 0.6644 Purdue (U 48.5) 20 Northwestern (-3.5) 27 0.6672 0.5882 0.5425 Troy (-5.5) 31 UL Monroe (O 46.5) 17 0.7909 0.6829 0.5147 Texas A&M (-7.5) 34 Arkansas (U 62.5) 24 0.7143 0.5542 0.6291 Mississippi (+7.5) 23 Georgia (U 55.5) 28 0.6154 0.5572 0.5731 Ohio St (U 41.5) 34 Wisconsin (+27.5) 7 0.9567 0.5269 0.5397 Michigan St (O 53.5) 13 Indiana (-26.5) 45 0.9667 0.6179 0.5651 SMU (+9.5) 28 Clemson (U 55.5) 27 0.5100 0.7186 0.5376 ******************************************************************************* * Best Bet against the Over/Under * Wyoming (+5.5) 23 * Air Force (U 58.5) 27 0.5975 0.5320 0.7194 ******************************************************************************* UNLV (+10.5) 31 Boise St (O 63.5) 34 0.5605 0.6644 0.5022 C Carolina (+11.5) 26 Appalachian St (O 49.5) 34 0.6745 0.5780 0.6565 Old Dominion (U 47.5) 20 James Madison (-1.5) 24 0.5995 0.5642 0.5528 Texas St (O 65.5) 33 Marshall (+3.5) 36 0.5572 0.6286 0.5648 Temple (O 48.5) 28 Charlotte (+11.5) 20 0.6715 0.5919 0.5241 UTSA (O 67.5) 35 North Texas (-4.5) 44 0.6708 0.5846 0.7063 Akron (O 43.5) 20 Ball St (-1.5) 24 0.5927 0.5573 0.5426 N Illinois (U 42.5) 13 Ohio (-10.5) 24 0.7632 0.5139 0.6631 Texas Tech (O 48.5) 34 Arizona St (+10.5) 24 0.7184 0.5075 0.6819 Memphis (-21.5) 46 UAB (O 64.5) 23 0.8865 0.5213 0.5887 Mississippi St (+9.5) 21 Florida (U 52.5) 30 0.7104 0.5023 0.5546 Southern Miss (O 54.5) 26 UL Lafayette (+4.5) 33 0.6460 0.7344 0.5868 Oregon (-16.5) 41 Rutgers (U 60.5) 20 0.8822 0.6034 0.5026 Washington St (+17.5) 26 Virginia (O 56.5) 35 0.6979 0.6773 0.5528 Texas (-10.5) 28 Kentucky (U 43.5) 13 0.8241 0.6070 0.5092 Penn St (O 38.5) 20 Iowa (-3.5) 24 0.6055 0.5205 0.5713 ******************************************************************************* * Best Bet against the Point Spread * Maryland (+2.5) 28 * UCLA (U 52.5) 20 0.6889 0.7397 0.6020 ******************************************************************************* Hawaii (U 54.5) 21 Colorado St (-1.5) 27 0.6379 0.6038 0.6306 Georgia St (O 59.5) 27 Georgia So (-6.5) 37 0.7080 0.5762 0.5603 Tennessee (U 59.5) 23 Alabama (-9.5) 35 0.7440 0.5477 0.5141 USC (O 61.5) 27 Notre Dame (-8.5) 40 0.7657 0.6002 0.5643 Pittsburgh (U 56.5) 30 Syracuse (+10.5) 26 0.5912 0.6427 0.5155 Florida Atl (U 73.5) 21 South Florida (-21.5) 44 0.8926 0.5261 0.6879 Missouri (U 44.5) 21 Auburn (-1.5) 23 0.5469 0.5101 0.5058 Utah (U 48.5) 23 BYU (+3.5) 22 0.5095 0.5761 0.6242 Cincinnati (U 58.5) 37 Oklahoma St (+21.5) 17 0.8726 0.5385 0.5686 Nevada (O 48.5) 23 New Mexico (-10.5) 38 0.7983 0.5970 0.7079 Florida St (U 54.5) 34 Stanford (+16.5) 19 0.8147 0.5363 0.6063 2025 Record Straight-up vs. Spread Over/Under Last Week 39-17-0 0.696 35-21-0 0.625 33-23-0 0.589 Season 261-91-0 0.741 185-165-2 0.528 181-171-0 0.514 Best Bet (Spread) Best Bet (Over/Under) Last Week 0-1-0 0.000 0-1-0 0.000 Season 3-5-0 0.375 2-6-0 0.250 Email:mailto:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net "Printer-friendly page" "Points spread page (sorted by probability of beating the spread)" "Over/Under page (sorted by probability of beating the over/under)" To take a look at the underlying rankings click here. To review previous predictions: week 0 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.